Zvezda St. Petersburg v Cherepovets prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–0 Cherepovets ZVEZDA ST. PETERSBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zvezda St. Petersburg win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.543

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zvezda St. Petersburg win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zvezda St. Petersburg 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
1′KICK-OFF Zvezda St. Petersburg v Cherepovets
27′A goal for Zvezda St. Petersburg on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Zvezda St. Petersburg 1–0 Cherepovets
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Zvezda St. Petersburg win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
28′We said Zvezda St. Petersburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 66–21–13
45′HALF-TIME Zvezda St. Petersburg 1–0 Cherepovets
46′SECOND HALF Zvezda St. Petersburg 1–0 Cherepovets
50′We said Zvezda St. Petersburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Zvezda St. Petersburg win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
56′Zvezda St. Petersburg score on 55′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
56′We said Zvezda St. Petersburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–0 Cherepovets
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Zvezda St. Petersburg win: 40% at kick-off, 93% now
64′We said Zvezda St. Petersburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
84′We said Zvezda St. Petersburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Zvezda St. Petersburg win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Zvezda St. Petersburg 2–0 Cherepovets
FTZvezda St. Petersburg 2–0 Cherepovets · Zvezda St. Petersburg win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Zvezda St. Petersburg just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zvezda St. Petersburg 40%, draw 22%, Cherepovets 37%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Zvezda St. Petersburg v CherepovetsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Zvezda St. Petersburg win40%

Draw22%

Cherepovets win37%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 28

VenueStadion Nova Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zvezda St. Petersburg

Cherepovets

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zvezda st. petersburg winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 10:09 · locked at kick-off

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make Zvezda St. Petersburg a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zvezda St. Petersburg v Cherepovets~~1.69 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 24~~10 v 9

~~The market · Zvezda St. Petersburg win~~40% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zvezda St. Petersburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zvezda St. Petersburg win	40%	40%	0
Draw	22%	29%	−7
Cherepovets win	37%	31%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	64%	51%	+13
Both teams to score	64%	56%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	83%	74%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	42%	31%	+11
Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw	63%	69%	−6
Zvezda St. Petersburg clean sheet	21%	–	–
Cherepovets clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.7 6.3 4.8 2.6 1 6.6 9.7 7.8 4.2 2 5.3 8.2 6.5 3.5 3 3.0 4.6 3.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zvezda St. Petersburg down, Cherepovets across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,436 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cherepovets away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Zvezda St. Petersburg, 1.62 for Cherepovets. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–2 ZVE · CHE 2–2 ZVE · CHE 2–1 ZVE · ZVE 4–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 29 Aug

ZVEZDA ST. PETERSBURG

LLLLLW2–3 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–8 · 3–2

CHEREPOVETS

LLWWLL1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11