Tver v Luki-Energiya prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Tver 2–1 Luki-Energiya TVER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tver win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.640

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tver win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Tver v Luki-Energiya
3′Much as we predicted: Tver was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Tver win 33%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Tver win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Draw 31%)
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Tver win 33%)
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Tver win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Draw 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Tver 0–0 Luki-Energiya
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Tver win 33%)
46′SECOND HALF Tver 0–0 Luki-Energiya
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Tver 1–0 Luki-Energiya
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Tver 1–1 Luki-Energiya
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Tver 2–1 Luki-Energiya
FTFULL TIME Tver 2–1 Luki-Energiya
FTTver 2–1 Luki-Energiya · Tver win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tver win40%

Draw26%

Luki-Energiya win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tver

Luki-Energiya

9Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Luki-Energiya	23	+15	45
7	Tver	24	+5	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tver winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Tver a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tver win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tver win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Luki-Energiya win	34%	41%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	48%	54%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Tver or draw	66%	59%	+7
Tver clean sheet	30%	–	–
Luki-Energiya clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.6 9.5 5.7 2.4 1 10.5 12.1 7.5 3.1 2 6.9 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.2 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tver down, Luki-Energiya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,430 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tver at home: 2.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Luki-Energiya away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Tver, 1.23 for Luki-Energiya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LUK 2–1 TVE · TVE 1–0 LUK · LUK 2–1 TVE · TVE 1–2 LUK

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2

TVER

LDDWWW0–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 8–1

LUKI-ENERGIYA

LDWWLW1–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo St. Petersburg	24	+29	51
2	Murom	23	+24	50
3	Chertanovo Moscow	24	+23	45
4	Luki-Energiya	23	+15	45
5	Baltika II	24	+12	40
6	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	24	−4	34
7	Tver	24	+5	33
8	Cherepovets	23	−8	30
9	Torpedo Vladimir	22	−5	29
10	Dinamo Vologda	23	−4	24
11	Yenisey II	25	−24	22
12	Spartak Moscow 2	22	−10	21
13	Zvezda St. Petersburg	23	−16	21
14	Iskra Smolensk	25	−26	21
15	Irkutsk	13	−11	11