Tver v Iskra Smolensk prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TverDrawIskra Smolensk

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tver 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tver are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tver 61%, draw 19%, Iskra Smolensk 19%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Tver v Iskra SmolenskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tver win61%

Draw19%

Iskra Smolensk win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tver

Iskra Smolensk

7Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tver	21	−6	24
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tver winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

61% The market71%

Us61%

~~Market~~71%

We make Tver a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tver v Iskra Smolensk~~2.20 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 15~~8 v 14

~~The market · Tver win~~71% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tver win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tver win	61%	71%	−10
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Iskra Smolensk win	19%	12%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	64%	59%	+5
Both teams to score	59%	48%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	42%	38%	+4
Tver or draw	81%	88%	−7
Tver clean sheet	33%	–	–
Iskra Smolensk clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.7 4.5 2.4 1 8.2 8.7 5.0 2 8.6 9.4 5.3 2.0 3 6.2 6.8 3.8 4 3.5 3.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tver down, Iskra Smolensk across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,442 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 183 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tver at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Iskra Smolensk away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Tver, 1.13 for Iskra Smolensk. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ISK 2–4 TVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 29 Aug

TVER

DWWWWD1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 8–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

ISKRA SMOLENSK

DWWWLL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11