Torpedo Vladimir v Spartak Moscow 2 prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:30

Torpedo Vladimir 0–3 Spartak Moscow 2 TORPEDO VLADIMIR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torpedo Vladimir win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torpedo Vladimir win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Torpedo Vladimir 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–31
1′KICK-OFF Torpedo Vladimir v Spartak Moscow 2
18′Spartak Moscow 2 score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–63
18′We said Torpedo Vladimir at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–63
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Torpedo Vladimir 0–1 Spartak Moscow 2
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Torpedo Vladimir win: 40% at kick-off, 13% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Spartak Moscow 2 win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Torpedo Vladimir win 13%)
20′18′: A. Bykovskiy on the scoresheet for Spartak Moscow 2, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–64
21′PENALTY MISSED · 20' Torpedo Vladimir
29′Spartak Moscow 2 find the net on 28′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–89
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Torpedo Vladimir 0–2 Spartak Moscow 2
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Torpedo Vladimir win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
30′We said Torpedo Vladimir at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
33′Spartak Moscow 2 ahead on 29′ through A. Bykovskiy. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
45′HALF-TIME Torpedo Vladimir 0–2 Spartak Moscow 2
46′SECOND HALF Torpedo Vladimir 0–2 Spartak Moscow 2
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Torpedo Vladimir win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
67′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
78′A goal for Spartak Moscow 2 on 78′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Torpedo Vladimir 0–3 Spartak Moscow 2
79′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Torpedo Vladimir 0–3 Spartak Moscow 2
FTTorpedo Vladimir 0–3 Spartak Moscow 2 · Torpedo Vladimir win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torpedo Vladimir are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torpedo Vladimir 40%, draw 29%, Spartak Moscow 2 32%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Torpedo Vladimir v Spartak Moscow 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Torpedo Vladimir win40%

Draw29%

Spartak Moscow 2 win32%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torpedo Vladimir

Spartak Moscow 2

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torpedo vladimir winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Torpedo Vladimir a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torpedo Vladimir v Spartak Moscow 2~~1.17 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 32 v 23~~6 v 12

~~The market · Torpedo Vladimir win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · torpedo vladimir win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torpedo Vladimir win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	29%	29%	0
Spartak Moscow 2 win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	66%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	21%	−3
Torpedo Vladimir or draw	68%	73%	−5
Torpedo Vladimir clean sheet	37%	–	–
Spartak Moscow 2 clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 11.5 11.8 5.8 1 13.6 12.7 6.5 2.3 2 7.7 7.5 3.8 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torpedo Vladimir down, Spartak Moscow 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,435 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings since 2021/22, in every competition we cover: 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torpedo Vladimir at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Moscow 2 away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Torpedo Vladimir, 1.01 for Spartak Moscow 2. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SPA 0–1 TOR · TOR 1–0 SPA · SPA 4–0 TOR · TOR 3–1 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 23 Aug

TORPEDO VLADIMIR

WLLLLW3–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

SPARTAK MOSCOW 2

LDWLDL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11