Torpedo Vladimir v Dinamo St. Petersburg prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Torpedo Vladimir 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg DINAMO ST. PETERSBURG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo St. Petersburg win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo St. Petersburg win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo St. Petersburg 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 23–27–50
1′KICK-OFF Torpedo Vladimir v Dinamo St. Petersburg
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
43′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 20–42–38
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Dinamo St. Petersburg win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Torpedo Vladimir 0–0 Dinamo St. Petersburg
46′SECOND HALF Torpedo Vladimir 0–0 Dinamo St. Petersburg
52′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 18–47–34
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
61′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 16–55–29
68′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 14–62–24
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
74′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 11–70–19
74′A goal for Torpedo Vladimir on 74′. 0–0 · 11–70–19
75′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 82–16–2
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Torpedo Vladimir 1–0 Dinamo St. Petersburg
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 50% at kick-off, 2% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Torpedo Vladimir win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
81′D. Sobolev scores for Torpedo Vladimir on 75′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
90′Dinamo St. Petersburg score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 3–93–4
90′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 3–93–4
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Torpedo Vladimir 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Torpedo Vladimir win 3%)
FTFULL TIME Torpedo Vladimir 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg
FTTorpedo Vladimir 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg · Dinamo St. Petersburg win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo St. Petersburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torpedo Vladimir 23%, draw 27%, Dinamo St. Petersburg 50%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Torpedo Vladimir v Dinamo St. PetersburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torpedo Vladimir win23%

Draw27%

Dinamo St. Petersburg win50%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torpedo Vladimir

Dinamo St. Petersburg

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Second League - Group 2

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo st. petersburg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Dinamo St. Petersburg a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torpedo Vladimir v Dinamo St. Petersburg~~0.85 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 32 v 42~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo St. Petersburg win

Published at 48%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torpedo Vladimir win	23%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Dinamo St. Petersburg win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Torpedo Vladimir or draw	50%	–	–
Torpedo Vladimir clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dinamo St. Petersburg clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.1%

0123450 10.8 15.1 10.2 4.9 1 9.4 11.9 8.3 3.9 2 3.9 5.2 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torpedo Vladimir down, Dinamo St. Petersburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,438 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torpedo Vladimir at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo St. Petersburg away: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Torpedo Vladimir, 1.40 for Dinamo St. Petersburg. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–1 TOR · TOR 1–1 DIN · DIN 2–1 TOR · DIN 0–2 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 22 Aug

TORPEDO VLADIMIR

LLLLWL1–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

DINAMO ST. PETERSBURG

DWLWWW0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 6–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11