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Spartak Moscow 2 v Zvezda St. Petersburg

Spartak Moscow 2

2–3Full time

Zvezda St. Petersburg

Second League - Group 2 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Spartak Moscow 2 2–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg SPARTAK MOSCOW 2 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Moscow 2 win~~56%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.954

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Moscow 2 win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF Spartak Moscow 2 v Zvezda St. Petersburg
2′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Moscow 2 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–22
7′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Moscow 2 56% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–22
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Spartak Moscow 2 0–1 Zvezda St. Petersburg
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Spartak Moscow 2 0–2 Zvezda St. Petersburg
39′Zvezda St. Petersburg find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–13–81
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Spartak Moscow 2 win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Zvezda St. Petersburg win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Spartak Moscow 2 win 6%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Spartak Moscow 2 win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Spartak Moscow 2 win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Zvezda St. Petersburg win 22%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Spartak Moscow 2 win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Spartak Moscow 2 win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Zvezda St. Petersburg win 22%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Spartak Moscow 2 win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Zvezda St. Petersburg win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Spartak Moscow 2 win 6%)
41′Zvezda St. Petersburg find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–13–82
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Spartak Moscow 2 win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Zvezda St. Petersburg win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Spartak Moscow 2 win 6%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Spartak Moscow 2 win: 56% at kick-off, 51% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Spartak Moscow 2 win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Zvezda St. Petersburg win 22%)
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg
45′HALF-TIME Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Spartak Moscow 2 win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Zvezda St. Petersburg win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Spartak Moscow 2 win 6%)
46′SECOND HALF Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg
48′⚽ GOAL · 27' Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg · D. Vislevskiy
48′⚽ GOAL · 37' Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg · N. Aliev
48′⚽ GOAL · 43' Spartak Moscow 2 0–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg · R. Angutaev
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Spartak Moscow 2 1–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Spartak Moscow 2 2–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg
FTFULL TIME Spartak Moscow 2 2–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg
FTSpartak Moscow 2 2–3 Zvezda St. Petersburg · Spartak Moscow 2 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Spartak Moscow 2 win56%

Draw22%

Zvezda St. Petersburg win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Spartak Moscow 2

Zvezda St. Petersburg

24Days since last match9

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Spartak Moscow 2	22	−10	21
13	Zvezda St. Petersburg	23	−16	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak moscow 2 winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

56% The market46%

Us56%

~~Market~~46%

We make Spartak Moscow 2 a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spartak moscow 2 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Moscow 2 win	56%	46%	+9
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Zvezda St. Petersburg win	23%	28%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	52%	+7
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	74%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	31%	+6
Spartak Moscow 2 or draw	77%	72%	+5
Spartak Moscow 2 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Zvezda St. Petersburg clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.8 5.6 3.1 1 9.3 9.9 5.7 2.2 2 8.6 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.5 6.1 3.4 4 2.7 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Moscow 2 down, Zvezda St. Petersburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,430 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 4.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Moscow 2 at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Zvezda St. Petersburg away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Spartak Moscow 2, 1.14 for Zvezda St. Petersburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ZVE 2–3 SPA · SPA 1–1 ZVE · ZVE 3–0 SPA · ZVE 1–4 SPA

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2

SPARTAK MOSCOW 2

DLDWLD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–0

ZVEZDA ST. PETERSBURG

DLLLLL1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–8

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo St. Petersburg	24	+29	51
2	Murom	23	+24	50
3	Chertanovo Moscow	24	+23	45
4	Luki-Energiya	23	+15	45
5	Baltika II	24	+12	40
6	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	24	−4	34
7	Tver	24	+5	33
8	Cherepovets	23	−8	30
9	Torpedo Vladimir	22	−5	29
10	Dinamo Vologda	23	−4	24
11	Yenisey II	25	−24	22
12	Spartak Moscow 2	22	−10	21
13	Zvezda St. Petersburg	23	−16	21
14	Iskra Smolensk	25	−26	21
15	Irkutsk	13	−11	11