Murom v Tver prediction · Second League - Group 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Murom 0–0 Tver MUROM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Murom win~~63%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.064

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.928

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Murom win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Murom was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–17
1′KICK-OFF Murom v Tver
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Murom win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
39′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–31–17
44′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–17
45′HALF-TIME Murom 0–0 Tver
46′SECOND HALF Murom 0–0 Tver
53′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–16
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Murom win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
56′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 43–42–16
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Murom win 40%)
61′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
67′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Murom win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
72′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
76′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Murom win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
80′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–73–8
83′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–80–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Murom win: 63% at kick-off, 11% now
87′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
92′We said Murom at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Murom win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Murom 0–0 Tver
FTMurom 0–0 Tver · Murom win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Murom are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Murom 63%, draw 20%, Tver 17%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Murom v TverBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Murom win63%

Draw20%

Tver win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 28

VenueViktor Losev Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Murom

Tver

4Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · murom winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market57%

Us63%

~~Market~~57%

We make Murom a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Murom v Tver~~2.08 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 44 v 24~~1 v 8

~~The market · Murom win~~57% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Murom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Murom win	63%	57%	+6
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Tver win	17%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	50%	+8
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	72%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	36%	30%	+6
Murom or draw	83%	82%	+1
Murom clean sheet	39%	–	–
Tver clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 5.1 2.3 1 10.4 9.3 4.6 2 10.2 9.5 4.5 3 7.0 6.5 3.1 4 3.8 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Murom down, Tver across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,438 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.80 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Murom at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tver away: 2.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Murom, 0.96 for Tver. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.80

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~0 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TVE 1–0 MUR · TVE 0–0 MUR · MUR 1–0 TVE · MUR 2–0 TVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 23 Aug

MUROM

LWWWWW0–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1

TVER

DDWWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 8–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11