Murom v Spartak Moscow 2 prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MuromDrawSpartak Moscow 2

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Murom 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Murom are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Murom 60%, draw 23%, Spartak Moscow 2 18%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Murom v Spartak Moscow 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Murom win60%

Draw23%

Spartak Moscow 2 win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Murom

Spartak Moscow 2

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · murom winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market71%

Us60%

~~Market~~71%

We make Murom a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Murom v Spartak Moscow 2~~1.77 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 44 v 23~~1 v 12

~~The market · Murom win~~71% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Murom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Murom win	60%	71%	−11
Draw	23%	18%	+5
Spartak Moscow 2 win	18%	11%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	41%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Murom or draw	82%	89%	−7
Murom clean sheet	45%	–	–
Spartak Moscow 2 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 7.7 6.6 2.6 1 13.6 10.4 4.4 2 11.6 9.1 3.8 3 6.9 5.3 2.2 4 3.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Murom down, Spartak Moscow 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Murom at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Moscow 2 away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Murom, 0.82 for Spartak Moscow 2. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SPA 0–1 MUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 Aug

MUROM

WWWWWD2–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0

SPARTAK MOSCOW 2

WLDLWD2–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11