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Iskra Smolensk v Murom

Iskra Smolensk

1–4Full time

Murom

Second League - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Iskra Smolensk 1–4 Murom MUROM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Murom win~~62%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.217

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.141

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Murom win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Murom 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 16–21–62
1′KICK-OFF Iskra Smolensk v Murom
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Iskra Smolensk 0–1 Murom
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Iskra Smolensk 0–2 Murom
21′9′ and it is 0–2: R. Bolov on the scoresheet for Murom. 0–2 · 1–4–96
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Murom win: 62% at kick-off, 96% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Iskra Smolensk 0–3 Murom
42′Murom ahead on 38′ through N. Kozlovskiy. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME Iskra Smolensk 0–3 Murom
47′We said Murom at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
47′SECOND HALF Iskra Smolensk 0–3 Murom
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Iskra Smolensk 1–3 Murom
67′A goal for Iskra Smolensk on 65′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Iskra Smolensk 1–4 Murom
87′72′ and it is 1–4: Murom have scored. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Iskra Smolensk 1–4 Murom
FTIskra Smolensk 1–4 Murom · Murom win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Iskra Smolensk win17%

Draw21%

Murom win62%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · murom winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

62% The market69%

Us62%

~~Market~~69%

We make Murom a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · murom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 73% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iskra Smolensk win	17%	14%	+3
Draw	21%	17%	+4
Murom win	62%	69%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	46%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Iskra Smolensk or draw	38%	31%	+7
Iskra Smolensk clean sheet	15%	–	–
Murom clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 11.8 11.1 7.2 3.7 1 5.6 9.8 9.3 6.0 3.0 2 2.4 4.4 4.1 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iskra Smolensk down, Murom across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,429 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iskra Smolensk at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Murom away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Iskra Smolensk, 1.95 for Murom. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MUR 6–0 ISK

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2

ISKRA SMOLENSK

LDWWWL0–4 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–2

MUROM

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo St. Petersburg	24	+29	51
2	Murom	22	+21	47
3	Chertanovo Moscow	24	+23	45
4	Luki-Energiya	23	+15	45
5	Baltika II	24	+12	40
6	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	24	−4	34
7	Tver	24	+5	33
8	Cherepovets	23	−8	30
9	Torpedo Vladimir	22	−5	29
10	Dinamo Vologda	23	−4	24
11	Yenisey II	25	−24	22
12	Spartak Moscow 2	22	−10	21
13	Zvezda St. Petersburg	23	−16	21
14	Iskra Smolensk	24	−23	21
15	Irkutsk	13	−11	11