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Home › Football › Second League - Group 2 › Dinamo Vologda v Chertanovo Moscow

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Dinamo Vologda v Chertanovo Moscow

Dinamo Vologda
0–1Full time
Chertanovo Moscow

Second League - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Dinamo

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Dinamo Vologda 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow CHERTANOVO MOSCOW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chertanovo Moscow win41%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.519
The market’s Brier score0.318

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chertanovo Moscow win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Chertanovo Moscow 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–24–41
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Vologda v Chertanovo Moscow
  4. 42′Chertanovo Moscow find the net on 42′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–71
  5. 42′We said Chertanovo Moscow at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–21–71
  6. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Dinamo Vologda 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow
  7. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Chertanovo Moscow win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  8. 43′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Vologda 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Vologda 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow
  11. 57′We said Chertanovo Moscow at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
  12. 68′We said Chertanovo Moscow at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  13. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Chertanovo Moscow win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  14. 76′We said Chertanovo Moscow at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  15. 82′We said Chertanovo Moscow at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  16. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Chertanovo Moscow win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
  17. 88′We said Chertanovo Moscow at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  18. FTFULL TIME Dinamo Vologda 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow
  19. FTDinamo Vologda 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow · Chertanovo Moscow win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chertanovo Moscow are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Vologda 34%, draw 24%, Chertanovo Moscow 41%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Vologda v Chertanovo MoscowBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Vologda win34%
Draw24%
Chertanovo Moscow win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 28

VenueDinamo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Vologda

Chertanovo Moscow

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 2

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Chertanovo Moscow21+2139
11Dinamo Vologda20+323

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chertanovo moscow winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 10:12 · locked at kick-off
41% The market54%
Us41%
Market54%

We make Chertanovo Moscow a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dinamo Vologda v Chertanovo Moscow1.33 – 1.50
Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 AugW1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 23 v 3911 v 5
The market · Chertanovo Moscow win54% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 12:47
Our probability · Chertanovo Moscow win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dinamo Vologda win34%21%+13
Draw24%25%−1
Chertanovo Moscow win41%54%−13
Over 2.5 goals53%50%+3
Both teams to score56%51%+5
Over 1.5 goals77%73%+4
Over 3.5 goals32%29%+3
Dinamo Vologda or draw59%46%+13
Dinamo Vologda clean sheet23%––
Chertanovo Moscow clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 5.9 9.2 6.6 3.3 1 8.3 11.3 8.5 4.3 2 5.3 7.6 5.6 2.8 3 2.4 3.4 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Vologda down, Chertanovo Moscow across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.71
Over 2.55 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsCHE 1–1 DIN · CHE 2–4 DIN · DIN 5–0 CHE · CHE 0–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 Aug

DINAMO VOLOGDA

LLDWLL2–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

CHERTANOVO MOSCOW

DWWWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Murom21+1844
2Dinamo St. Petersburg20+2242
3Luki-Energiya21+1842
4Baltika II21+1940
5Chertanovo Moscow21+2139
6Torpedo Vladimir20+532
7Kosmos Dolgoprudny21−628
8Tver21−624
9Cherepovets20−1124
10Zvezda St. Petersburg20024
11Dinamo Vologda20+323
12Spartak Moscow 221−623
13Yenisey II21−1719
14Iskra Smolensk21−2515
15Irkutsk21−3511

The competition's standings before kick-off.