Dinamo St. Petersburg v Zvezda St. Petersburg prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg DINAMO ST. PETERSBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo St. Petersburg win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo St. Petersburg win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo St. Petersburg was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo St. Petersburg v Zvezda St. Petersburg
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
37′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–27–14
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg
48′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–32–14
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 50–37–14
56′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
62′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–13
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 71% at kick-off, 41% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Dinamo St. Petersburg win 44%)
68′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–50–12
72′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–55–11
73′Dinamo St. Petersburg score on 73′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 90–10–1
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dinamo St. Petersburg 1–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 71% at kick-off, 90% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Dinamo St. Petersburg win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 57%)
74′We published Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 71% at kick-off, 91% now
84′We published Dinamo St. Petersburg at 71%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Dinamo St. Petersburg 1–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg
FTDinamo St. Petersburg 1–0 Zvezda St. Petersburg · Dinamo St. Petersburg win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo St. Petersburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo St. Petersburg 71%, draw 16%, Zvezda St. Petersburg 13%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo St. Petersburg v Zvezda St. PetersburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo St. Petersburg win71%

Draw16%

Zvezda St. Petersburg win13%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo St. Petersburg

Zvezda St. Petersburg

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 2

Last match: 16 Oct · Second League - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo st. petersburg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Dinamo St. Petersburg a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo St. Petersburg v Zvezda St. Petersburg~~2.49 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 42 v 24~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo St. Petersburg win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo St. Petersburg win	71%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Zvezda St. Petersburg win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw	87%	–	–
Dinamo St. Petersburg clean sheet	40%	–	–
Zvezda St. Petersburg clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 3.5 3.5 1 8.6 7.5 3.6 2 10.0 9.0 4.2 3 8.2 7.3 3.4 4 5.2 4.6 2.1 5 2.7 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo St. Petersburg down, Zvezda St. Petersburg across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,442 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 183 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zvezda St. Petersburg away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Dinamo St. Petersburg, 0.92 for Zvezda St. Petersburg. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ZVE 1–1 DIN · ZVE 1–7 DIN · DIN 2–0 ZVE · DIN 0–1 ZVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

DINAMO ST. PETERSBURG

WLWWWD2–0 · 1–2 · 6–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

ZVEZDA ST. PETERSBURG

LLLLWW0–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–8 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11