Cherepovets v Torpedo Vladimir prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Cherepovets 0–1 Torpedo Vladimir CHEREPOVETS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cherepovets win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.679

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.702

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cherepovets win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Cherepovets v Torpedo Vladimir
2′Much as we predicted: Cherepovets was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
3′Much as we predicted: Cherepovets was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cherepovets win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Cherepovets 0–0 Torpedo Vladimir
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Cherepovets win 32%)
46′SECOND HALF Cherepovets 0–0 Torpedo Vladimir
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Cherepovets 0–1 Torpedo Vladimir
FTFULL TIME Cherepovets 0–1 Torpedo Vladimir
FTCherepovets 0–1 Torpedo Vladimir · Cherepovets win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cherepovets win40%

Draw27%

Torpedo Vladimir win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cherepovets

Torpedo Vladimir

14Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cherepovets	23	−8	30
9	Torpedo Vladimir	22	−5	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cherepovets winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make Cherepovets a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cherepovets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cherepovets win	40%	40%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Torpedo Vladimir win	33%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−10
Both teams to score	48%	57%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	68%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−10
Cherepovets or draw	67%	68%	−1
Cherepovets clean sheet	33%	–	–
Torpedo Vladimir clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.3 10.6 5.8 2.2 1 11.8 12.5 7.1 2.7 2 7.3 8.0 4.5 3 3.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cherepovets down, Torpedo Vladimir across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,430 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cherepovets at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Torpedo Vladimir away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Cherepovets, 1.13 for Torpedo Vladimir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TOR 1–0 CHE · CHE 3–1 TOR · TOR 0–0 CHE

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2

CHEREPOVETS

DLLWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–2

TORPEDO VLADIMIR

WWLLLL1–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo St. Petersburg	24	+29	51
2	Murom	23	+24	50
3	Chertanovo Moscow	24	+23	45
4	Luki-Energiya	23	+15	45
5	Baltika II	24	+12	40
6	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	24	−4	34
7	Tver	24	+5	33
8	Cherepovets	23	−8	30
9	Torpedo Vladimir	22	−5	29
10	Dinamo Vologda	23	−4	24
11	Yenisey II	25	−24	22
12	Spartak Moscow 2	22	−10	21
13	Zvezda St. Petersburg	23	−16	21
14	Iskra Smolensk	25	−26	21
15	Irkutsk	13	−11	11