Cherepovets v Luki-Energiya prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CherepovetsDrawLuki-Energiya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Luki-Energiya 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Luki-Energiya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cherepovets 33%, draw 27%, Luki-Energiya 41%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Cherepovets v Luki-EnergiyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cherepovets win33%

Draw27%

Luki-Energiya win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cherepovets

Luki-Energiya

9Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Second League - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luki-energiya winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Luki-Energiya a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cherepovets v Luki-Energiya~~1.13 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 42~~9 v 3

~~The market · Luki-Energiya win~~39% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Luki-Energiya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cherepovets win	33%	33%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Luki-Energiya win	41%	39%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	58%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
Cherepovets or draw	59%	61%	−2
Cherepovets clean sheet	28%	–	–
Luki-Energiya clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.9 11.8 7.4 3.3 1 10.3 12.3 8.1 3.6 2 5.7 7.1 4.6 2.0 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cherepovets down, Luki-Energiya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cherepovets at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Luki-Energiya away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Cherepovets, 1.30 for Luki-Energiya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LUK 4–1 CHE · LUK 3–0 CHE · CHE 1–0 LUK · LUK 2–4 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

CHEREPOVETS

LWWLLL0–2 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

LUKI-ENERGIYA

WWLWLD2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11