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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Second League - Group 2 › Baltika II v Yenisey II

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Baltika II v Yenisey II

Baltika II
2–1Full time
Yenisey II

Second League - Group 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Baltika Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Baltika II 2–1 Yenisey II BALTIKA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Baltika II win71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.129

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Baltika II win at 71%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Baltika II v Yenisey II
  3. 2′Baltika II score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–9–5
  4. 2′We published Baltika II at 71%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–9–5
  5. 14′Baltika II find the net on 14′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  6. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Baltika II 2–0 Yenisey II
  7. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Baltika II win: 71% at kick-off, 95% now
  8. 15′We published Baltika II at 71%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  9. 19′Baltika II ahead on 12′ through G. Iva. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–3–1
  10. 34′PENALTY MISSED · 34' Baltika II
  11. 38′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Baltika II 2–0 Yenisey II
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Baltika II 2–0 Yenisey II
  14. 47′A goal for Yenisey II on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–12–3
  15. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Baltika II 2–1 Yenisey II
  16. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Baltika II win: 71% at kick-off, 85% now
  17. 48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+3' Yenisey II
  18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Baltika II win: 71% at kick-off, 97% now
  19. 60′A goal for Yenisey II on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–12–2
  20. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Baltika II 2–1 Yenisey II
  21. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Baltika II win: 71% at kick-off, 85% now
  22. 77′We published Baltika II at 71%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  23. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Baltika II win: 71% at kick-off, 91% now
  24. 89′A red card for Yenisey II on 88′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  25. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Yenisey II
  26. FTFULL TIME Baltika II 2–1 Yenisey II
  27. FTBaltika II 2–1 Yenisey II · Baltika II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baltika II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baltika II 71%, draw 16%, Yenisey II 14%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Baltika II v Yenisey IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Baltika II win71%
Draw16%
Yenisey II win14%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 28

VenueBaltika Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baltika II

Yenisey II

6Days since last match13

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 2

Last match: 4 Oct · Second League - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Baltika II21+1940
13Yenisey II21−1719

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baltika ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
71% The market–
Us71%

We make Baltika II a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Baltika II v Yenisey II2.72 – 1.11
Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 AugW1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 40 v 194 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 12:23
Our probability · Baltika II win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Baltika II win71%––
Draw16%––
Yenisey II win14%––
Over 2.5 goals73%––
Both teams to score61%––
Over 1.5 goals89%––
Over 3.5 goals53%––
Baltika II or draw86%––
Baltika II clean sheet34%––
Yenisey II clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%
0123450 2.3 2.8 1 6.4 6.5 3.7 2 8.0 8.6 4.8 3 7.1 7.6 4.2 4 4.8 5.2 2.9 5 2.7 2.9
under 2% 5% 12%+Baltika II down, Yenisey II across0–5 goals a side shown (93.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting4.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsYEN 1–6 BAL · YEN 1–0 BAL · BAL 4–1 YEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 Aug

BALTIKA II

DWLLLL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

YENISEY II

DLLLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–6 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Murom21+1844
2Dinamo St. Petersburg20+2242
3Luki-Energiya21+1842
4Baltika II21+1940
5Chertanovo Moscow21+2139
6Torpedo Vladimir20+532
7Kosmos Dolgoprudny21−628
8Tver21−624
9Cherepovets20−1124
10Zvezda St. Petersburg20024
11Dinamo Vologda20+323
12Spartak Moscow 221−623
13Yenisey II21−1719
14Iskra Smolensk21−2515
15Irkutsk21−3511

The competition's standings before kick-off.