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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Second League - Group 1 › Spartak Nalchik v FK Chayka 2

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Spartak Nalchik v FK Chayka 2

Spartak Nalchik
2–1Full time
FK Chayka 2

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Spartak Nalchik 2–1 FK Chayka 2 SPARTAK NALCHIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Spartak Nalchik win65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Nalchik win at 65%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Nalchik 65% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–19–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Spartak Nalchik v FK Chayka 2
  4. 2′A goal for Spartak Nalchik on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–6
  5. 2′We said Spartak Nalchik at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–6
  6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Spartak Nalchik 1–0 FK Chayka 2
  7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Spartak Nalchik win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
  9. 38′FK Chayka 2 score on 38′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 54–28–18
  10. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Spartak Nalchik 1–1 FK Chayka 2
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Spartak Nalchik win: 65% at kick-off, 54% now
  12. 40′We said Spartak Nalchik at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–29–18
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Spartak Nalchik 1–1 FK Chayka 2
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Spartak Nalchik 1–1 FK Chayka 2
  15. 49′We said Spartak Nalchik at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–34–17
  16. 53′Spartak Nalchik find the net on 52′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
  17. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Spartak Nalchik 2–1 FK Chayka 2
  18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Spartak Nalchik win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
  19. 63′We said Spartak Nalchik at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  20. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Spartak Nalchik win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
  21. 76′FK Chayka 2 are down to ten from 75′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  22. 76′🟥 RED CARD · 75' FK Chayka 2
  23. 78′We said Spartak Nalchik at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  24. 86′We said Spartak Nalchik at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  25. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Spartak Nalchik win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
  26. 87′Spartak Nalchik have ten men and FK Chayka 2 ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  27. 87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Spartak Nalchik
  28. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 87' A. Goguzokov · Spartak Nalchik
  29. FTFULL TIME Spartak Nalchik 2–1 FK Chayka 2
  30. FTSpartak Nalchik 2–1 FK Chayka 2 · Spartak Nalchik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Nalchik are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Nalchik 65%, draw 18%, FK Chayka 2 17%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Nalchik v FK Chayka 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Nalchik win65%
Draw18%
FK Chayka 2 win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Nalchik

FK Chayka 2

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak nalchik winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
65% The market–
Us65%

We make Spartak Nalchik a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Spartak Nalchik v FK Chayka 22.34 – 1.09
Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Spartak Nalchik win65%––
Draw18%––
FK Chayka 2 win17%––
Over 2.5 goals66%––
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals85%––
Over 3.5 goals45%––
Spartak Nalchik or draw83%––
Spartak Nalchik clean sheet34%––
FK Chayka 2 clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.5 3.9 2.0 1 8.0 8.1 4.5 2 8.8 9.2 5.0 3 6.7 7.1 3.8 4 4.0 4.2 2.3 5 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Nalchik down, FK Chayka 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsFKC 1–1 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

SPARTAK NALCHIK

LWLLWL0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 0–1

FK CHAYKA 2

LLLWLW0–2 · 2–4 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 5–3