Rubin Yalta v Rostov II prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rubin YaltaDrawRostov II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rostov II 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rostov II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rubin Yalta 35%, draw 26%, Rostov II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Rubin Yalta v Rostov IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rubin Yalta win35%

Draw26%

Rostov II win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 30

VenueAvangard Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rubin Yalta

Rostov II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rostov ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Rostov II a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rubin Yalta v Rostov II~~1.22 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rubin Yalta win	35%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Rostov II win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Rubin Yalta or draw	62%	–	–
Rubin Yalta clean sheet	29%	–	–
Rostov II clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.4 10.8 6.7 2.9 1 10.3 12.3 7.9 3.4 2 6.1 7.6 4.8 2.1 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rubin Yalta down, Rostov II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,345 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rubin Yalta at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rostov II away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Rubin Yalta, 1.28 for Rostov II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ROS 1–0 RUB · ROS 0–1 RUB · RUB 0–0 ROS · RUB 2–1 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

RUBIN YALTA

LWWLWW1–3 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

ROSTOV II

LDLDWW0–5 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

Rubin Yalta v Rostov II

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Rubin Yalta

Rostov II

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept