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Pobeda v Rubin Yalta
Second League - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Spartak
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Pobeda win at 41%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Pobeda v Rubin Yalta
- 2′Much as we predicted: Pobeda was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
- 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Pobeda 0–1 Rubin Yalta
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Pobeda 1–1 Rubin Yalta
- 23′17′ and it is 1–1: Pobeda have scored. 1–1 · 38–29–33
- 45′HALF-TIME Pobeda 1–1 Rubin Yalta
- 46′SECOND HALF Pobeda 1–1 Rubin Yalta
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Pobeda win 33%)
- 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Pobeda 2–1 Rubin Yalta
- 65′Pobeda find the net on 59′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–19–4
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Pobeda win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Pobeda win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 19%)
- 86′We published Pobeda at 41%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–1 · 94–5–0
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Pobeda win: 41% at kick-off, 94% now
- FTFULL TIME Pobeda 2–1 Rubin Yalta
- FTPobeda 2–1 Rubin Yalta · Pobeda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 12:30
Venue · Stadion Spartak
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Pobeda a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pobeda win | 41% | 40% | +2 |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Rubin Yalta win | 35% | 32% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 31% | +2 |
| Pobeda or draw | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Pobeda clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Rubin Yalta clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2024Form · last six in Second League - Group 1
POBEDA
RUBIN YALTA
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevastopol | 25 | +26 | 60 |
| 2 |  Shahter Taganrog | 26 | +23 | 53 |
| 3 |  Rostov II | 25 | +25 | 50 |
| 4 | Pobeda | 24 | +14 | 42 |
| 5 |  Kyzyltash | 25 | +9 | 40 |
| 6 | Rubin Yalta | 25 | +9 | 40 |
| 7 |  Druzhba | 25 | +5 | 39 |
| 8 |  Nart Cherkessk | 25 | +12 | 38 |
| 9 |  Spartak Nalchik | 24 | +7 | 34 |
| 10 |  Lugansk | 25 | −1 | 30 |
| 11 |  Astrakhan | 25 | −8 | 27 |
| 12 |  Izberbash | 26 | −42 | 23 |
| 13 |  Angust Nazran | 24 | −16 | 19 |
| 14 |  PSK Dinskaya | 12 | −3 | 17 |
| 15 |  Dynamo Makhachkala II | 26 | −23 | 17 |
| 16 |  FK Chayka 2 | 26 | −37 | 17 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.