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Pobeda v Nart Cherkessk

Pobeda
2–1Full time
Nart Cherkessk

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Spartak

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Pobeda 2–1 Nart Cherkessk NART CHERKESSK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Nart Cherkessk win39%
The market said23%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.624
The market’s Brier score0.322

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nart Cherkessk win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nart Cherkessk 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Pobeda v Nart Cherkessk
  4. 24′Pobeda score on 24′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
  5. 24′We said Nart Cherkessk at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Pobeda 1–0 Nart Cherkessk
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Nart Cherkessk win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
  8. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Pobeda win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Nart Cherkessk win 36%)
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–13
  10. 44′We said Nart Cherkessk at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
  11. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Nart Cherkessk win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Pobeda 1–0 Nart Cherkessk
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Pobeda 1–0 Nart Cherkessk
  14. 53′Pobeda find the net on 53′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  15. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Pobeda 2–0 Nart Cherkessk
  16. 54′We said Nart Cherkessk at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
  17. 56′A goal for Nart Cherkessk on 56′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–7
  18. 56′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 72–21–7
  19. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Pobeda 2–1 Nart Cherkessk
  20. FTFULL TIME Pobeda 2–1 Nart Cherkessk
  21. FTPobeda 2–1 Nart Cherkessk · Nart Cherkessk win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Nart Cherkessk just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pobeda 36%, draw 25%, Nart Cherkessk 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Pobeda v Nart CherkesskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Pobeda win36%
Draw25%
Nart Cherkessk win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 29

VenueStadion Spartak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pobeda

Nart Cherkessk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nart cherkessk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market23%
Us39%
Market23%

We make Nart Cherkessk a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Pobeda v Nart Cherkessk1.32 – 1.38
Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2
The market · Nart Cherkessk win23% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:52
Our probability · Nart Cherkessk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Pobeda win36%54%−18
Draw25%23%+2
Nart Cherkessk win39%23%+16
Over 2.5 goals50%59%−9
Both teams to score54%59%−5
Over 1.5 goals74%80%−6
Over 3.5 goals29%37%−8
Pobeda or draw61%77%−16
Pobeda clean sheet26%––
Nart Cherkessk clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 7.0 9.6 6.4 3.0 1 9.2 11.8 8.1 3.8 2 5.9 7.8 5.3 2.5 3 2.6 3.5 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Pobeda down, Nart Cherkessk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 7
Both scored1 of 7
Last meetingsNAR 0–1 POB · POB 0–0 NAR · NAR 1–0 POB · NAR 1–0 POB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

POBEDA

WWWLWL2–1 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–4

NART CHERKESSK

LWDWWL0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–3