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Nart Cherkessk v Rostov II
Nart CherkesskRostov IISecond League - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Stadium Nart
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Nart Cherkessk win at 39%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Nart Cherkessk was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
- 1′KICK-OFF Nart Cherkessk v Rostov II
- 28′Rostov II score on 28′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–23–65
- 28′We said Nart Cherkessk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–65
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Nart Cherkessk 0–1 Rostov II
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Nart Cherkessk win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
- 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Rostov II win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Nart Cherkessk win 11%)
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
- 31′Rostov II find the net on 30′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
- 31′We said Nart Cherkessk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Nart Cherkessk 0–2 Rostov II
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Nart Cherkessk win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Nart Cherkessk 0–2 Rostov II
- 46′SECOND HALF Nart Cherkessk 0–2 Rostov II
- 47′Rostov II ahead on 30′ through K. Madrakhimov. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
- 47′We said Nart Cherkessk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Nart Cherkessk 1–2 Rostov II
- 57′A goal for Nart Cherkessk on 56′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
- 57′We said Nart Cherkessk at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–21–74
- 58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–20–75
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Nart Cherkessk 1–3 Rostov II
- 73′Rostov II score on 72′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
- 73′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
- FTFULL TIME Nart Cherkessk 1–3 Rostov II
- FTNart Cherkessk 1–3 Rostov II · Nart Cherkessk win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassNart Cherkessk are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Nart Cherkessk 39%, draw 29%, Rostov II 32%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Nart Cherkessk win39%Rostov II win32%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00
RoundGroup 1 · matchday 28
VenueStadium Nart
Match timeline
All events
Nart CherkesskMINRostov IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Nart Cherkessk
Rostov II
Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1
Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Nart Cherkessk a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nart Cherkessk win | 39% | 44% | −5 |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | +2 |
| Rostov II win | 32% | 29% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 52% | −14 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 57% | −13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 75% | −11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 33% | −14 |
| Nart Cherkessk or draw | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Nart Cherkessk clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Rostov II clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 29 Aug
NART CHERKESSK
ROSTOV II