Nart Cherkessk v Astrakhan prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nart CherkesskDrawAstrakhan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nart Cherkessk 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nart Cherkessk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nart Cherkessk 53%, draw 25%, Astrakhan 21%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Nart Cherkessk v AstrakhanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Nart Cherkessk win53%

Draw25%

Astrakhan win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 30

VenueStadium Nart

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nart Cherkessk

Astrakhan

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	+8	30
11	Astrakhan	20	−10	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nart cherkessk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Nart Cherkessk a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nart Cherkessk v Astrakhan~~1.53 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 20~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nart Cherkessk win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Astrakhan win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Nart Cherkessk or draw	79%	–	–
Nart Cherkessk clean sheet	43%	–	–
Astrakhan clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 9.4 8.2 3.4 1 14.3 11.6 5.0 2 10.6 8.8 3.8 3 5.5 4.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nart Cherkessk down, Astrakhan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,345 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nart Cherkessk at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Astrakhan away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Nart Cherkessk, 0.85 for Astrakhan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~AST 1–1 NAR · AST 2–2 NAR · NAR 1–1 AST · NAR 2–0 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 19 Sept

NART CHERKESSK

WDWWLL3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

ASTRAKHAN

DWLDLL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	+21	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	+22	46
3	Rostov II	21	+29	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	+10	34
5	Pobeda	20	+11	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	+6	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	+7	28
9	Druzhba	20	−2	27
10	Lugansk	21	−6	24
11	Astrakhan	20	−10	20
12	Izberbash	21	−38	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	−12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	−26	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	−20	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0