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Lugansk v Nart Cherkessk

Lugansk

1–2Full time

Nart Cherkessk

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Lugansk 1–2 Nart Cherkessk NART CHERKESSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nart Cherkessk win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 3 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nart Cherkessk win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nart Cherkessk 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Lugansk v Nart Cherkessk
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nart Cherkessk win 32%)
FTFULL TIME Lugansk 1–2 Nart Cherkessk
FTLugansk 1–2 Nart Cherkessk · Nart Cherkessk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lugansk win34%

Draw27%

Nart Cherkessk win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nart cherkessk winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Nart Cherkessk a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lugansk win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Nart Cherkessk win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Lugansk or draw	60%	–	–
Lugansk clean sheet	29%	–	–
Nart Cherkessk clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.9 11.5 7.1 3.1 1 10.4 12.3 7.9 3.5 2 5.9 7.2 4.6 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lugansk down, Nart Cherkessk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lugansk at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nart Cherkessk away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Lugansk, 1.28 for Nart Cherkessk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NAR 0–0 LUG

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1

LUGANSK

LWDWWL0–3 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 5–1 · 0–2

NART CHERKESSK

LWLWDW2–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	25	+26	60
2	Shahter Taganrog	26	+23	53
3	Rostov II	25	+25	50
4	Pobeda	24	+14	42
5	Kyzyltash	25	+9	40
6	Rubin Yalta	25	+9	40
7	Druzhba	25	+5	39
8	Nart Cherkessk	25	+12	38
9	Spartak Nalchik	24	+7	34
10	Lugansk	25	−1	30
11	Astrakhan	25	−8	27
12	Izberbash	26	−42	23
13	Angust Nazran	24	−16	19
14	PSK Dinskaya	12	−3	17
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	26	−23	17
16	FK Chayka 2	26	−37	17