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Kyzyltash v Pobeda
KyzyltashPobedaSecond League - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Kyzyltash win at 45%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Kyzyltash 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–22–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Kyzyltash v Pobeda
- 11′A goal for Pobeda on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–21–56
- 11′We said Kyzyltash at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–21–56
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Kyzyltash 0–1 Pobeda
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Kyzyltash win: 45% at kick-off, 23% now
- 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Pobeda win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Kyzyltash win 23%)
- 14′T. Bitarov scores for Pobeda on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–21–56
- 26′We said Kyzyltash at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 18–23–59
- 32′Kyzyltash score on 32′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 41–29–31
- 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kyzyltash 1–1 Pobeda
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Kyzyltash win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
- 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Kyzyltash win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pobeda win 31%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Kyzyltash 2–1 Pobeda
- 46′Kyzyltash find the net on 45′. 2–1. 2–1 · 71–20–9
- 46′We said Kyzyltash at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–1 · 71–20–9
- 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Kyzyltash 2–1 Pobeda
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Kyzyltash win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
- 46′SECOND HALF Kyzyltash 2–1 Pobeda
- 59′We said Kyzyltash at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Kyzyltash win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
- 63′A goal for Kyzyltash on 63′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
- 63′We said Kyzyltash at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kyzyltash 3–1 Pobeda
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Kyzyltash win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
- 64′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
- 74′Kyzyltash score on 74′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 74′We said Kyzyltash at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 74′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Kyzyltash 4–1 Pobeda
- FTFULL TIME Kyzyltash 4–1 Pobeda
- FTKyzyltash 4–1 Pobeda · Kyzyltash win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassKyzyltash are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kyzyltash 45%, draw 22%, Pobeda 33%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Kyzyltash win45%Pobeda win33%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00
RoundGroup 1 · matchday 28
Match timeline
All events
KyzyltashMINPobedaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kyzyltash
Pobeda
Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1
Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Kyzyltash a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzyltash win | 45% | 40% | +5 |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | −7 |
| Pobeda win | 33% | 31% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 78% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 36% | +8 |
| Kyzyltash or draw | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Kyzyltash clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
| Pobeda clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 29 Aug
KYZYLTASH
POBEDA