Kyzyltash v Lugansk prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KyzyltashDrawLugansk

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kyzyltash 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kyzyltash are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kyzyltash 52%, draw 22%, Lugansk 27%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Kyzyltash v LuganskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kyzyltash win52%

Draw22%

Lugansk win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kyzyltash

Lugansk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kyzyltash	21	+6	31
10	Lugansk	21	−6	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kyzyltash winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Kyzyltash a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kyzyltash v Lugansk~~1.93 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 31 v 24~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kyzyltash win	52%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Lugansk win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Kyzyltash or draw	73%	–	–
Kyzyltash clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lugansk clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.1 5.5 3.5 1 7.9 9.6 6.3 2.8 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.7 3 4.6 5.8 3.8 4 2.3 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kyzyltash down, Lugansk across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,345 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 214 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kyzyltash at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lugansk away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Kyzyltash, 1.33 for Lugansk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LUG 0–0 KYZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

KYZYLTASH

WLWDWL2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–2

LUGANSK

WWLLLL5–0 · 5–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	+21	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	+22	46
3	Rostov II	21	+29	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	+10	34
5	Pobeda	20	+11	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	+6	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	+7	28
9	Druzhba	20	−2	27
10	Lugansk	21	−6	24
11	Astrakhan	20	−10	20
12	Izberbash	21	−38	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	−12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	−26	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	−20	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0