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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Second League - Group 1 › Izberbash v Spartak Nalchik

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Izberbash v Spartak Nalchik

Izberbash
2–0Full time
Spartak Nalchik

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Izberbash 2–0 Spartak Nalchik SPARTAK NALCHIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Spartak Nalchik win54%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.924
The market’s Brier score0.938

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Nalchik win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Nalchik 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 24–22–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Izberbash v Spartak Nalchik
  4. 19′Izberbash find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 50–25–26
  5. 19′We said Spartak Nalchik at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 50–25–26
  6. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Izberbash 1–0 Spartak Nalchik
  7. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Spartak Nalchik win: 54% at kick-off, 26% now
  8. 19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Izberbash win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Spartak Nalchik win 50%)
  9. 23′We said Spartak Nalchik at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 51–25–24
  10. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Spartak Nalchik win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 52–26–22
  12. 37′We said Spartak Nalchik at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–26–19
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Izberbash 1–0 Spartak Nalchik
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Izberbash 1–0 Spartak Nalchik
  15. 50′We said Spartak Nalchik at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
  16. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Spartak Nalchik win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  17. 51′A goal for Izberbash on 51′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
  18. 51′We said Spartak Nalchik at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
  19. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Izberbash 2–0 Spartak Nalchik
  20. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Spartak Nalchik win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Izberbash 2–0 Spartak Nalchik
  22. FTIzberbash 2–0 Spartak Nalchik · Spartak Nalchik win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Nalchik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Izberbash 24%, draw 22%, Spartak Nalchik 54%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Izberbash v Spartak NalchikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Izberbash win24%
Draw22%
Spartak Nalchik win54%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Izberbash

Spartak Nalchik

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak nalchik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
54% The market54%
Us54%
Market54%

We make Spartak Nalchik a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Izberbash v Spartak Nalchik1.14 – 1.87
Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3
The market · Spartak Nalchik win54% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:52
Our probability · Spartak Nalchik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Izberbash win24%23%+1
Draw22%23%−1
Spartak Nalchik win54%54%0
Over 2.5 goals57%61%−4
Both teams to score56%61%−5
Over 1.5 goals79%78%+1
Over 3.5 goals36%41%−5
Izberbash or draw46%46%0
Izberbash clean sheet16%––
Spartak Nalchik clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%
0123450 5.1 9.5 8.5 5.3 2.6 1 6.0 10.2 9.3 5.8 2.8 2 3.3 5.9 5.3 3.3 3 2.3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Izberbash down, Spartak Nalchik across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsSPA 4–0 IZB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

IZBERBASH

LWDDLD1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2

SPARTAK NALCHIK

WLLWLW2–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1