FK Chayka 2 v Sevastopol prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

FK Chayka 2 1–4 Sevastopol SEVASTOPOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sevastopol win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.114

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sevastopol win at 72%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sevastopol was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 12–16–72
1′KICK-OFF FK Chayka 2 v Sevastopol
35′Sevastopol score on 35′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–10–86
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sevastopol win: 72% at kick-off, 62% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' FK Chayka 2 0–1 Sevastopol
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sevastopol win: 72% at kick-off, 86% now
36′We published Sevastopol at 72%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 3–10–86
38′36′: D. V. Pigulevsky on the scoresheet for Sevastopol, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–10–86
44′Sevastopol find the net on 44′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
44′We published Sevastopol at 72%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' FK Chayka 2 0–2 Sevastopol
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Sevastopol win: 72% at kick-off, 97% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–97
45′HALF-TIME FK Chayka 2 0–2 Sevastopol
46′SECOND HALF FK Chayka 2 0–2 Sevastopol
57′A goal for Sevastopol on 57′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' FK Chayka 2 0–3 Sevastopol
58′We published Sevastopol at 72%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′FK Chayka 2 score on 77′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
77′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' FK Chayka 2 1–3 Sevastopol
81′78′: A. Vasilenko on the scoresheet for FK Chayka 2, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′Sevastopol find the net on 90′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' FK Chayka 2 1–4 Sevastopol
FTFULL TIME FK Chayka 2 1–4 Sevastopol
FTFK Chayka 2 1–4 Sevastopol · Sevastopol win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sevastopol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Chayka 2 12%, draw 15%, Sevastopol 72%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on FK Chayka 2 v SevastopolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FK Chayka 2 win12%

Draw15%

Sevastopol win72%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 29

VenueChayka Central Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Chayka 2

Sevastopol

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sevastopol winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Sevastopol a 72% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.7, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Chayka 2 v Sevastopol~~0.95 – 2.70

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 50~~14 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Chayka 2 win	12%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Sevastopol win	72%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
FK Chayka 2 or draw	28%	–	–
FK Chayka 2 clean sheet	8%	–	–
Sevastopol clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.2%

0123450 3.0 7.5 9.2 8.0 5.4 3.11 3.0 6.9 8.6 7.3 4.9 2.82 3.4 4.1 3.5 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Chayka 2 down, Sevastopol across0–5 goals a side shown (92.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,339 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Chayka 2 at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sevastopol away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for FK Chayka 2, 2.70 for Sevastopol. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SEV 2–0 FKC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

FK CHAYKA 2

LLWLWL2–4 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 5–3 · 1–2

SEVASTOPOL

WWWWWD2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 6–0 · 2–2

The table

2026 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	+21	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	+22	46
3	Rostov II	21	+29	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	+10	34
5	Pobeda	20	+11	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	+6	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	+7	28
9	Druzhba	20	−2	27
10	Lugansk	21	−6	24
11	Astrakhan	20	−10	20
12	Izberbash	21	−38	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	−12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	−26	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	−20	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0