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FK Chayka 2 v Angust Nazran

FK Chayka 2

5–3Full time

Angust Nazran

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Chayka Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

FK Chayka 2 5–3 Angust Nazran ANGUST NAZRAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Angust Nazran win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.674

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Angust Nazran win at 37%.
1′Angust Nazran ahead on 5′ through K. Zaynanov. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–67
1′KICK-OFF FK Chayka 2 v Angust Nazran
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' FK Chayka 2 0–2 Angust Nazran · K. Zaynanov
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Angust Nazran win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' FK Chayka 2 1–2 Angust Nazran
23′A. Semka scores for FK Chayka 2 on 16′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–21–70
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' FK Chayka 2 2–2 Angust Nazran
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran
41′⚽ GOAL · 3' FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran · A. Semka
41′⚽ GOAL · 5' FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran · K. Zaynanov
41′⚽ GOAL · 16' FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran · A. Semka
41′⚽ GOAL · 26' FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran · N. Posmashnyi
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran
44′Angust Nazran ahead on 41′ through K. Zaynanov. 2–3. 2–3 · 6–20–74
45′HALF-TIME FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran
47′SECOND HALF FK Chayka 2 2–3 Angust Nazran
54′We said Angust Nazran at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 2–3 · 4–19–77
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Angust Nazran win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' FK Chayka 2 3–3 Angust Nazran
78′⚽ GOAL · 75' FK Chayka 2 5–3 Angust Nazran
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' FK Chayka 2 5–3 Angust Nazran
FTFULL TIME FK Chayka 2 5–3 Angust Nazran
FTFK Chayka 2 5–3 Angust Nazran · Angust Nazran win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FK Chayka 2 win33%

Draw30%

Angust Nazran win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Chayka Central Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · angust nazran winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Angust Nazran a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Chayka 2 win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Angust Nazran win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
FK Chayka 2 or draw	63%	–	–
FK Chayka 2 clean sheet	35%	–	–
Angust Nazran clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.3 14.0 7.3 2.6 1 13.0 12.8 6.9 2.5 2 6.2 6.4 3.4 3 2.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Chayka 2 down, Angust Nazran across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Chayka 2 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Angust Nazran away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for FK Chayka 2, 1.06 for Angust Nazran. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ANG 1–0 FKC

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1

FK CHAYKA 2

WLLLWL3–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 0–4

ANGUST NAZRAN

LLLLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	25	+26	60
2	Shahter Taganrog	26	+23	53
3	Rostov II	25	+25	50
4	Pobeda	24	+14	42
5	Kyzyltash	25	+9	40
6	Rubin Yalta	25	+9	40
7	Druzhba	25	+5	39
8	Nart Cherkessk	25	+12	38
9	Spartak Nalchik	24	+7	34
10	Lugansk	25	−1	30
11	Astrakhan	25	−8	27
12	Izberbash	26	−42	23
13	Angust Nazran	24	−16	19
14	PSK Dinskaya	12	−3	17
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	26	−23	17
16	FK Chayka 2	26	−37	17