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Druzhba v Lugansk

Druzhba

2–1Full time

Lugansk

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Druzhba 2–1 Lugansk DRUZHBA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Druzhba win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Druzhba win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Druzhba 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Druzhba v Lugansk
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Druzhba win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Druzhba 0–0 Lugansk
46′SECOND HALF Druzhba 0–0 Lugansk
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Druzhba win 36%)
49′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–41–23
53′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–45–22
62′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–19
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Druzhba win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
70′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
74′Lugansk score on 73′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–80
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Druzhba 0–1 Lugansk
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Druzhba win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Lugansk win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 18%)
75′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–13
75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' Lugansk
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Druzhba win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lugansk win 13%)
80′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
84′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–6
84′Lugansk score on 84′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–9–91
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Druzhba 0–1 Lugansk
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Druzhba win: 48% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Lugansk win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
85′We said Druzhba at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–8–91
89′Druzhba find the net on 89′. 1–1. 1–1 · 6–90–4
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Druzhba 1–1 Lugansk
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Lugansk win 4%)
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Druzhba 2–1 Lugansk
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Druzhba win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Druzhba win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
93′A goal for Druzhba on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′We said Druzhba at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Druzhba win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
95′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Druzhba 2–1 Lugansk
FTDruzhba 2–1 Lugansk · Druzhba win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Druzhba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Druzhba 48%, draw 25%, Lugansk 27%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Druzhba v LuganskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Druzhba win48%

Draw25%

Lugansk win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 28

VenueAdygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Druzhba

Lugansk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Druzhba	20	−2	27
10	Lugansk	21	−6	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · druzhba winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Druzhba a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Druzhba v Lugansk~~1.56 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 24~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Druzhba win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Lugansk win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Druzhba or draw	73%	–	–
Druzhba clean sheet	34%	–	–
Lugansk clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.2 8.0 4.3 1 11.1 11.5 6.4 2.4 2 8.4 9.0 4.9 3 4.4 4.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Druzhba down, Lugansk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 201 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Druzhba at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lugansk away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Druzhba, 1.11 for Lugansk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LUG 1–1 DRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 29 Aug

DRUZHBA

WWWLWD1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–0

LUGANSK

WDWWLL4–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 5–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	+21	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	+22	46
3	Rostov II	21	+29	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	+10	34
5	Pobeda	20	+11	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	+6	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	+7	28
9	Druzhba	20	−2	27
10	Lugansk	21	−6	24
11	Astrakhan	20	−10	20
12	Izberbash	21	−38	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	−12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	−26	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	−20	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0