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Astrakhan v Kyzyltash

Astrakhan

0–0Full time

Kyzyltash

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Stadium Named after A.I. Kolosov

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Astrakhan 0–0 Kyzyltash ASTRAKHAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Astrakhan win~~38%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.876

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Astrakhan win at 38%.
2′KICK-OFF Astrakhan v Kyzyltash
4′Little has changed for our model: Astrakhan 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
45′HALF-TIME Astrakhan 0–0 Kyzyltash
48′SECOND HALF Astrakhan 0–0 Kyzyltash
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Astrakhan win 31%)
69′We said Astrakhan at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 22–56–22
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Astrakhan win: 38% at kick-off, 22% now
90′We said Astrakhan at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Astrakhan win: 38% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Astrakhan 0–0 Kyzyltash
FTAstrakhan 0–0 Kyzyltash · Astrakhan win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Astrakhan win38%

Draw24%

Kyzyltash win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Stadium Named after A.I. Kolosov

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · astrakhan winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Astrakhan a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · astrakhan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Astrakhan win	38%	32%	+6
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Kyzyltash win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	31%	+4
Astrakhan or draw	62%	59%	+3
Astrakhan clean sheet	23%	–	–
Kyzyltash clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.2 7.9 5.6 2.8 1 8.0 10.7 8.0 4.0 2 5.7 8.1 5.9 3.0 3 2.9 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Astrakhan down, Kyzyltash across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,325 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Astrakhan at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kyzyltash away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Astrakhan, 1.50 for Kyzyltash. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KYZ 3–0 AST

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1

ASTRAKHAN

LDLDWL0–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

KYZYLTASH

DWLWLW1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	25	+26	60
2	Shahter Taganrog	26	+23	53
3	Rostov II	25	+25	50
4	Pobeda	24	+14	42
5	Kyzyltash	25	+9	40
6	Rubin Yalta	25	+9	40
7	Druzhba	25	+5	39
8	Nart Cherkessk	25	+12	38
9	Spartak Nalchik	24	+7	34
10	Lugansk	25	−1	30
11	Astrakhan	25	−8	27
12	Izberbash	26	−42	23
13	Angust Nazran	24	−16	19
14	PSK Dinskaya	12	−3	17
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	26	−23	17
16	FK Chayka 2	26	−37	17