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Astrakhan v Druzhba

Astrakhan

2–3Full time

Druzhba

Second League - Group 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Stadium Named after A.I. Kolosov

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Astrakhan 2–3 Druzhba DRUZHBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Druzhba win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.559

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.479

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Druzhba win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Druzhba was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Astrakhan v Druzhba
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Druzhba win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 43%)
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Druzhba win 35%)
41′A goal for Astrakhan on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–23–9
41′We said Druzhba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Astrakhan 1–0 Druzhba
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Astrakhan win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 69–23–9
44′D. Zolotorenko scores for Astrakhan on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–8
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Druzhba win 39%)
45′HALF-TIME Astrakhan 1–0 Druzhba
46′SECOND HALF Astrakhan 1–0 Druzhba
62′We said Druzhba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
63′Druzhba score on 63′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 21–56–23
63′We said Druzhba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 21–56–23
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Astrakhan 1–1 Druzhba
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Astrakhan win 77%)
66′62′: A. Ashev on the scoresheet for Druzhba, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–59–22
70′We said Druzhba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–64–19
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
73′Astrakhan find the net on 73′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Astrakhan 2–1 Druzhba
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Astrakhan win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 68%)
75′A goal for Druzhba on 75′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 14–70–16
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Astrakhan 2–2 Druzhba
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Astrakhan win 84%)
76′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 13–72–15
77′We said Druzhba at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 13–73–14
78′A. Ashev scores for Druzhba on 73′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 12–75–13
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
85′Druzhba score on 85′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–94
85′We published Druzhba at 39%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–3 · 0–6–94
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–6–94
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Astrakhan 2–3 Druzhba
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Druzhba win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 87%)
87′We published Druzhba at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
88′83′: M. Malysh on the scoresheet for Druzhba, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–95
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Druzhba win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Astrakhan 2–3 Druzhba
FTAstrakhan 2–3 Druzhba · Druzhba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Druzhba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Astrakhan 33%, draw 28%, Druzhba 39%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Astrakhan v DruzhbaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Astrakhan win33%

Draw28%

Druzhba win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 29

VenueStadium Named after A.I. Kolosov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Astrakhan

Druzhba

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Druzhba	20	−2	27
11	Astrakhan	20	−10	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · druzhba winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Druzhba a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Astrakhan v Druzhba~~1.10 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 27~~11 v 9

~~The market · Druzhba win~~44% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Druzhba win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Astrakhan win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Druzhba win	39%	44%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Astrakhan or draw	61%	56%	+5
Astrakhan clean sheet	30%	–	–
Druzhba clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 10.0 12.1 7.3 3.1 1 11.0 12.6 7.7 3.2 2 6.0 7.1 4.2 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Astrakhan down, Druzhba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,339 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.38 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Astrakhan at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Druzhba away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Astrakhan, 1.23 for Druzhba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.38

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DRU 0–0 AST · DRU 1–0 AST · DRU 1–1 AST · AST 0–0 DRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 12 Sept

ASTRAKHAN

LDWLDL1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3

DRUZHBA

WWLWDW1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · South

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	+21	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	+22	46
3	Rostov II	21	+29	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	+10	34
5	Pobeda	20	+11	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	+6	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	+7	28
9	Druzhba	20	−2	27
10	Lugansk	21	−6	24
11	Astrakhan	20	−10	20
12	Izberbash	21	−38	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	−12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	−26	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	−20	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0