Angust Nazran v Shahter Taganrog prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Angust Nazran 0–2 Shahter Taganrog SHAHTER TAGANROG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shahter Taganrog win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.354

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shahter Taganrog win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shahter Taganrog 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 21–28–51
1′KICK-OFF Angust Nazran v Shahter Taganrog
30′Shahter Taganrog find the net on 30′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–81
30′We said Shahter Taganrog at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 4–15–81
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 4–15–81
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Angust Nazran 0–1 Shahter Taganrog
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Shahter Taganrog win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Shahter Taganrog win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
44′A goal for Shahter Taganrog on 44′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
44′We said Shahter Taganrog at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Angust Nazran 0–2 Shahter Taganrog
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Shahter Taganrog win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME Angust Nazran 0–2 Shahter Taganrog
46′SECOND HALF Angust Nazran 0–2 Shahter Taganrog
77′We said Shahter Taganrog at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Angust Nazran 0–2 Shahter Taganrog
FTAngust Nazran 0–2 Shahter Taganrog · Shahter Taganrog win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shahter Taganrog are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Angust Nazran 21%, draw 28%, Shahter Taganrog 52%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Angust Nazran v Shahter TaganrogBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Angust Nazran win21%

Draw28%

Shahter Taganrog win52%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Angust Nazran

Shahter Taganrog

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shahter taganrog winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Shahter Taganrog a 52% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Angust Nazran v Shahter Taganrog~~0.73 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D2 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Angust Nazran win	21%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Shahter Taganrog win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Angust Nazran or draw	48%	–	–
Angust Nazran clean sheet	27%	–	–
Shahter Taganrog clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.8%

0123450 12.6 16.8 11.2 5.2 1 9.3 11.7 7.9 3.6 2 3.5 4.5 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Angust Nazran down, Shahter Taganrog across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 Second League - Group 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 201 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Angust Nazran at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shahter Taganrog away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for Angust Nazran, 1.36 for Shahter Taganrog. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHA 1–0 ANG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept

ANGUST NAZRAN

LLLLWL0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–5

SHAHTER TAGANROG

DWDLLW1–1 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

Angust Nazran v Shahter Taganrog

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Angust Nazran

Shahter Taganrog

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Second League - Group 1 this season · since 5 Sept