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Zenit 2 v Amkar

Zenit 2

3–0Full time

Amkar

Second League A - Division A Silver · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Zenit 2 3–0 Amkar ZENIT 2 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zenit 2 win~~53%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.327

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.333

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zenit 2 win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zenit 2 was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–21–25
1′KICK-OFF Zenit 2 v Amkar
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Zenit 2 1–0 Amkar
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Amkar
23′Zenit 2 find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–3
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Zenit 2 2–0 Amkar
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Zenit 2 win: 53% at kick-off, 91% now
38′We published Zenit 2 at 53%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Zenit 2 3–0 Amkar
45′HALF-TIME Zenit 2 3–0 Amkar
46′SECOND HALF Zenit 2 3–0 Amkar
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Amkar · On: D. Agureev · Off: K. Burykin
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Amkar · On: L. Tolkachev · Off: E. Tyukalov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Amkar · On: D. Chushyalov · Off: D. Mikhaylov
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Zenit 2
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Zenit 2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Amkar · On: M. Smolnikov · Off: M. Malozemov
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Zenit 2 · On: K. Voinkov · Off: K. Glazunov
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Zenit 2 · On: E. Dubinin · Off: S. Nikiforov
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Zenit 2
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Zenit 2
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Zenit 2
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Zenit 2
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Amkar
FTFULL TIME Zenit 2 3–0 Amkar
FTZenit 2 3–0 Amkar · Zenit 2 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zenit 2 win53%

Draw21%

Amkar win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Zenit 2

Formation not confirmed

35 D. Gayvoronskiy

43 D. Terentyev

45 K. Glazunov

47 K. Obonin

49 L. Khanov

58 P. Izotov

63 S. Karelin

70 N. Vershinin

86 D. Barkov

87 S. Nikiforov

93 M. Shichanin

Coach · –

Substitutes

53 · A. Egurnev

64 · K. Voinkov

71 · D. Shumikhin

72 · A. Busalaev

75 · B. Levandovskiy

80 · I. Bulygin

84 · A. Mityaev

85 · S. Chernov

91 · K. Kosarev

97 · E. Dubinin

Amkar

Formation not confirmed

4 E. Gallyamov

5 G. Sanakoev

7 E. Tyukalov

10 D. Usov

11 V. Ignatenko

13 V. Dolzhenko

15 K. Saraev

17 M. Malozemov

23 D. Mikhaylov

31 K. Burykin

89 N. Khvat

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · M. Smolnikov

6 · L. Tolkachev

9 · D. Agureev

14 · D. Chushyalov

19 · K. Popov

57 · E. Trifonov

78 · D. Kumsarov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zenit 2

Formation not confirmed

35 D. Gayvoronskiy

43 D. Terentyev

45 K. Glazunov

47 K. Obonin

49 L. Khanov

58 P. Izotov

63 S. Karelin

70 N. Vershinin

86 D. Barkov

87 S. Nikiforov

93 M. Shichanin

Coach · –

Substitutes

53 · A. Egurnev

64 · K. Voinkov

71 · D. Shumikhin

72 · A. Busalaev

75 · B. Levandovskiy

80 · I. Bulygin

84 · A. Mityaev

85 · S. Chernov

91 · K. Kosarev

97 · E. Dubinin

Amkar

Formation not confirmed

4 E. Gallyamov

5 G. Sanakoev

7 E. Tyukalov

10 D. Usov

11 V. Ignatenko

13 V. Dolzhenko

15 K. Saraev

17 M. Malozemov

23 D. Mikhaylov

31 K. Burykin

89 N. Khvat

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · M. Smolnikov

6 · L. Tolkachev

9 · D. Agureev

14 · D. Chushyalov

19 · K. Popov

57 · E. Trifonov

78 · D. Kumsarov

Our number · zenit 2 winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

53% The market53%

Us53%

~~Market~~53%

We make Zenit 2 a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zenit 2 win	53%	53%	0
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Amkar win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	64%	+4
Both teams to score	66%	64%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	47%	44%	+3
Zenit 2 or draw	75%	77%	−2
Zenit 2 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Amkar clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.4 3.9 3.0 1 5.9 9.0 6.1 2.9 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.6 6.4 4.5 2.1 4 2.5 3.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zenit 2 down, Amkar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 360 Second League A - Division A Silver matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League A - Division A Silver matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zenit 2 at home: 3.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Amkar away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Zenit 2, 1.42 for Amkar. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AMK 2–2 ZEN · AMK 4–2 ZEN · ZEN 5–2 AMK

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver

ZENIT 2

DDWWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

AMKAR

LDLWWL0–5 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit 2	10	+22	26
2	Amkar	10	+10	19
3	Tyumen	11	+7	19
4	Torpedo Miass	10	+3	15
5	Dinamo Stavropol	9	−8	8
6	Irtysh Omsk	10	−13	7
7	Dinamo Moskva II	10	−21	7