Home › Football › Second League A - Division A Silver › Irtysh Omsk v Tyumen

Irtysh Omsk v Tyumen

Irtysh Omsk

1–2Full time

Tyumen

Second League A - Division A Silver · SAT 10 OCT · Red Star Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Irtysh Omsk 1–2 Tyumen TYUMEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tyumen win~~39%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tyumen win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tyumen 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Irtysh Omsk v Tyumen
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Tyumen
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Tyumen
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Irtysh Omsk
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Irtysh Omsk 1–1 Tyumen
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Irtysh Omsk 1–2 Tyumen
42′Tyumen ahead on 40′ through E. Tatarinov. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–21–70
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Tyumen win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
45′We said Tyumen at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–2 · 8–21–71
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Tyumen
45′HALF-TIME Irtysh Omsk 1–2 Tyumen
46′SECOND HALF Irtysh Omsk 1–2 Tyumen
51′🟨 YELLOW · 47' P. Shakuro · Tyumen
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Tyumen
63′We said Tyumen at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Irtysh Omsk
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tyumen
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Irtysh Omsk
83′🟨 YELLOW · 77' A. Kulakov · Irtysh Omsk
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tyumen · On: V. Babaev · Off: V. Shitov
84′We said Tyumen at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–2 · 0–7–92
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Tyumen win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Irtysh Omsk · On: K. Kovalchuk · Off: M. Zhustjev
FTFULL TIME Irtysh Omsk 1–2 Tyumen
FTIrtysh Omsk 1–2 Tyumen · Tyumen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Irtysh Omsk win34%

Draw26%

Tyumen win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Red Star Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Irtysh Omsk

Formation not confirmed

7 A. Razborov

8 A. Markosyan

9 N. Zhustjev

10 R. Yanushkovskiy

12 A. Antonov

15 M. Zhustjev

23 A. Kulakov

30 P. Razdymakha

55 K. Shokhin

60 V. Poletaev

99 P. Makarov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Elistratov

11 · K. Kovalchuk

20 · I. Korobochkin

24 · P. Razdymakha

25 · S. Rusyaev

27 · D. Gribanov

77 · G. Galstyan

Tyumen

Formation not confirmed

2 A. Polev

7 A. Roshchin

10 E. Tatarinov

17 V. Shitov

27 M. Ofitserov

54 D. Lukin

56 V. Demyanov

70 A. Maryanov

90 P. Shakuro

96 T. Rukas

97 D. Talikin

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · G. Zakharov

5 · E. Tonevitskiy

11 · V. Babaev

14 · S. Luzin

24 · V. Grinwald

25 · M. Kulaev

35 · V. Kokarev

45 · K. Boyarskikh

95 · I. Oborocha

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Irtysh Omsk

Formation not confirmed

7 A. Razborov

8 A. Markosyan

9 N. Zhustjev

10 R. Yanushkovskiy

12 A. Antonov

15 M. Zhustjev

23 A. Kulakov

30 P. Razdymakha

55 K. Shokhin

60 V. Poletaev

99 P. Makarov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Elistratov

11 · K. Kovalchuk

20 · I. Korobochkin

24 · P. Razdymakha

25 · S. Rusyaev

27 · D. Gribanov

77 · G. Galstyan

Tyumen

Formation not confirmed

2 A. Polev

7 A. Roshchin

10 E. Tatarinov

17 V. Shitov

27 M. Ofitserov

54 D. Lukin

56 V. Demyanov

70 A. Maryanov

90 P. Shakuro

96 T. Rukas

97 D. Talikin

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · G. Zakharov

5 · E. Tonevitskiy

11 · V. Babaev

14 · S. Luzin

24 · V. Grinwald

25 · M. Kulaev

35 · V. Kokarev

45 · K. Boyarskikh

95 · I. Oborocha

Our number · tyumen winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

39% The market51%

Us39%

~~Market~~51%

We make Tyumen a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tyumen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Irtysh Omsk win	34%	24%	+10
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Tyumen win	39%	51%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	51%	65%	−13
Both teams to score	55%	65%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	45%	−15
Irtysh Omsk or draw	61%	49%	+12
Irtysh Omsk clean sheet	25%	–	–
Tyumen clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.2 8.8 6.5 3.1 1 8.1 12.3 8.4 4.0 2 5.6 7.8 5.5 2.6 3 2.5 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Irtysh Omsk down, Tyumen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 360 Second League A - Division A Silver matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League A - Division A Silver matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Irtysh Omsk at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tyumen away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Irtysh Omsk, 1.42 for Tyumen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TYU 5–0 IRT

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver

IRTYSH OMSK

LLLLLW0–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–0

TYUMEN

WWWWLL5–0 · 5–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit 2	10	+22	26
2	Amkar	10	+10	19
3	Tyumen	11	+7	19
4	Torpedo Miass	10	+3	15
5	Dinamo Stavropol	9	−8	8
6	Irtysh Omsk	10	−13	7
7	Dinamo Moskva II	10	−21	7