Irtysh Omsk v Dinamo Stavropol prediction · Second League A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Irtysh OmskDrawDinamo Stavropol

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Irtysh Omsk 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Irtysh Omsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Irtysh Omsk 42%, draw 27%, Dinamo Stavropol 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Irtysh Omsk v Dinamo StavropolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Irtysh Omsk win42%

Draw27%

Dinamo Stavropol win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundDivision A Silver · matchday 14

VenueRed Star Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Irtysh Omsk

Dinamo Stavropol

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Second League A - Division A Silver

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dinamo Stavropol	12	−10	11
7	Irtysh Omsk	12	−17	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · irtysh omsk winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Irtysh Omsk a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Irtysh Omsk v Dinamo Stavropol~~1.41 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~7 v 5

~~The market · Irtysh Omsk win~~41% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Irtysh Omsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Irtysh Omsk win	42%	41%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Dinamo Stavropol win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	46%	+2
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Irtysh Omsk or draw	68%	70%	−2
Irtysh Omsk clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dinamo Stavropol clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 8.5 5.3 2.2 1 10.1 12.6 7.2 2.9 2 7.3 8.5 5.1 2.0 3 3.5 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Irtysh Omsk down, Dinamo Stavropol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 368 Second League A - Division A Silver matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League A - Division A Silver matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.8% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Irtysh Omsk at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Stavropol away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Irtysh Omsk, 1.20 for Dinamo Stavropol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DIN 2–1 IRT · IRT 0–1 DIN · DIN 1–1 IRT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 13 Sept

IRTYSH OMSK

LLWLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–2

DINAMO STAVROPOL

LLLWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit 2	12	+27	32
2	Amkar	12	+10	22
3	Tyumen	12	+8	22
4	Torpedo Miass	12	+4	19
5	Dinamo Stavropol	12	−10	11
6	Dinamo Moskva II	12	−22	8
7	Irtysh Omsk	12	−17	7