Dinamo Stavropol v Zenit 2 prediction · Second League A

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Dinamo Stavropol 1–3 Zenit 2 ZENIT 2 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zenit 2 win~~43%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.106

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zenit 2 win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zenit 2 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 32–25–43
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Stavropol v Zenit 2
34′Zenit 2 score on 34′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Dinamo Stavropol 0–1 Zenit 2
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Zenit 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
35′We said Zenit 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 10–20–71
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–71
38′Zenit 2 find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
38′We said Zenit 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Dinamo Stavropol 0–2 Zenit 2
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Zenit 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Zenit 2
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Stavropol 0–2 Zenit 2
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Stavropol 0–2 Zenit 2
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Zenit 2 win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
58′We said Zenit 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Dinamo Stavropol
62′A goal for Zenit 2 on 62′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Dinamo Stavropol 0–3 Zenit 2
63′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
65′We said Zenit 2 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dinamo Stavropol · On: A. Dzhumaev · Off: V. Tskhadiashvili
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dinamo Stavropol · On: B. Akhyadov · Off: D. Rubanov
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Stavropol · On: A. Byazrov · Off: R. Trefilov
72′Dinamo Stavropol score on 72′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
72′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Dinamo Stavropol 1–3 Zenit 2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Zenit 2 · On: K. Voinkov · Off: K. Glazunov
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zenit 2 · On: A. Egurnev · Off: P. Izotov
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dinamo Stavropol · On: D. Kratkov · Off: N. Kashtan
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Dinamo Stavropol
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Stavropol 1–3 Zenit 2
FTDinamo Stavropol 1–3 Zenit 2 · Zenit 2 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zenit 2 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Stavropol 32%, draw 25%, Zenit 2 43%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Stavropol v Zenit 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Stavropol win32%

Draw25%

Zenit 2 win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundDivision A Silver · matchday 14

VenueEssentuki Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Stavropol

Zenit 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Stavropol

Zenit 2

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Second League A - Division A Silver

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League A - Division A Silver

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Stavropol

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Guskov

4 V. Tskhadiashvili

6 M. Yshyk

11 M. Alimov

19 V. Rymar

20 R. Trefilov

22 Y. Grigoryan

32 A. Karasev

48 D. Shilov

86 N. Kashtan

99 D. Rubanov

Coach · Ashamaz Shakov

Substitutes

12 · I. Ganyuk

13 · M. Matyusha

18 · R. Garaev

26 · D. Kratkov

27 · A. Gyulushahyan

47 · T. Musaev

70 · A. Dzhumaev

73 · L. Bogachev

88 · A. Byazrov

93 · B. Akhyadov

Zenit 2

Formation not confirmed

35 D. Gayvoronskiy

43 D. Terentyev

45 K. Glazunov

49 L. Khanov

58 P. Izotov

63 S. Karelin

70 N. Vershinin

86 D. Barkov

87 S. Nikiforov

93 M. Shichanin

97 E. Dubinin

Coach · –

Substitutes

53 · A. Egurnev

64 · K. Voinkov

80 · I. Bulygin

84 · A. Mityaev

Our number · zenit 2 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:56 · locked at kick-off

43% The market74%

Us43%

~~Market~~74%

We make Zenit 2 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 31 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Stavropol v Zenit 2~~1.36 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 29~~5 v 1

~~The market · Zenit 2 win~~74% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zenit 2 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Stavropol win	32%	11%	+21
Draw	25%	15%	+10
Zenit 2 win	43%	74%	−31
Over 2.5 goals	57%	68%	−11
Both teams to score	59%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	48%	−13
Dinamo Stavropol or draw	57%	26%	+31
Dinamo Stavropol clean sheet	20%	–	–
Zenit 2 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 7.9 6.7 3.6 1 6.6 11.3 8.9 4.8 2.0 2 4.7 7.4 6.0 3.3 3 2.2 3.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Stavropol down, Zenit 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 364 Second League A - Division A Silver matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League A - Division A Silver matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Stavropol at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Zenit 2 away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Dinamo Stavropol, 1.63 for Zenit 2. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ZEN 3–0 DIN · DIN 3–0 ZEN · ZEN 3–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 30 Aug

DINAMO STAVROPOL

LWLLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

ZENIT 2

DWWWWW2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit 2	11	+25	29
2	Tyumen	12	+8	22
3	Amkar	11	+7	19
4	Torpedo Miass	11	+4	18
5	Dinamo Stavropol	11	−8	11
6	Irtysh Omsk	11	−14	7
7	Dinamo Moskva II	11	−22	7