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Model 1.2

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Dinamo Stavropol v Irtysh Omsk

Dinamo Stavropol
2–1Full time
Irtysh Omsk

Second League A - Division A Silver · WED 21 OCT · Essentuki Arena

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 14:31
Dinamo Stavropol 2–1 Irtysh Omsk DINAMO STAVROPOL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dinamo Stavropol win52%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.350
The market’s Brier score0.383

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Stavropol win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Stavropol was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Stavropol v Irtysh Omsk
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Dinamo Stavropol win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  5. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Dinamo Stavropol
  6. 45′We said Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–39–21
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Stavropol 0–0 Irtysh Omsk
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Stavropol 0–0 Irtysh Omsk
  9. 47′We said Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
  10. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Dinamo Stavropol win 40%)
  11. 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–45–19
  12. 57′We said Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
  13. 58′A goal for Dinamo Stavropol on 58′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  14. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Dinamo Stavropol 1–0 Irtysh Omsk
  15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Dinamo Stavropol win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  16. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Dinamo Stavropol win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 48%)
  17. 59′We published Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dinamo Stavropol · On: V. Tskhadiashvili · Off: Y. Grigoryan
  19. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dinamo Stavropol · On: D. Shilov · Off: B. Akhyadov
  20. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dinamo Stavropol · On: D. Rubanov · Off: N. Kashtan
  21. 68′We published Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  22. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Irtysh Omsk
  23. 77′Dinamo Stavropol score on 77′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  24. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Dinamo Stavropol 2–0 Irtysh Omsk
  25. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Dinamo Stavropol win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
  26. 78′We published Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  27. 78′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  28. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dinamo Stavropol · On: M. Alimov · Off: A. Gyulushahyan
  29. 80′We published Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 81′Irtysh Omsk find the net on 81′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  31. 81′We published Dinamo Stavropol at 52%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  32. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Dinamo Stavropol 2–1 Irtysh Omsk
  33. 83′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–6–0
  34. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Dinamo Stavropol
  35. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dinamo Stavropol · On: A. Karasev · Off: A. Dzhumaev
  36. FTFULL TIME Dinamo Stavropol 2–1 Irtysh Omsk
  37. FTDinamo Stavropol 2–1 Irtysh Omsk · Dinamo Stavropol win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Stavropol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Stavropol 52%, draw 25%, Irtysh Omsk 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Stavropol v Irtysh OmskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Stavropol win52%
Draw25%
Irtysh Omsk win23%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 12:00

RoundDivision A Silver · matchday 14

VenueEssentuki Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Stavropol

Irtysh Omsk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Stavropol

Irtysh Omsk

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League A - Division A Silver

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League A - Division A Silver

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Dinamo Stavropol12−1011
7Irtysh Omsk12−177

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Stavropol

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Matyusha

6 M. Yshyk

18 R. Garaev

88 A. Byazrov

22 Y. Grigoryan

2 M. Yagyaev

17 A. Panaev

86 N. Kashtan

70 A. Dzhumaev

27 A. Gyulushahyan

93 B. Akhyadov

Coach · Ashamaz Shakov

Substitutes

1 · V. Guskov

12 · I. Ganyuk

19 · V. Rymar

32 · A. Karasev

73 · L. Bogachev

47 · T. Musaev

48 · D. Shilov

11 · M. Alimov

20 · R. Trefilov

4 · V. Tskhadiashvili

99 · D. Rubanov

Irtysh Omsk

Formation not confirmed

60 V. Poletaev

23 A. Kulakov

15 M. Zhustjev

12 A. Antonov

55 K. Shokhin

8 A. Markosyan

99 P. Makarov

30 P. Razdymakha

11 K. Kovalchuk

10 R. Yanushkovskiy

7 A. Razborov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Elistratov

24 · P. Razdymakha

25 · S. Rusyaev

77 · G. Galstyan

27 · D. Gribanov

Our number · dinamo stavropol winFirst published 18 Oct 09:32 · locked at kick-off
52% The market49%
Us52%
Market49%

We make Dinamo Stavropol a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dinamo Stavropol v Irtysh Omsk1.65 – 1.01
Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 11 v 75 v 7
The market · Dinamo Stavropol win49% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 09:3221 OCT 11:39
Our probability · Dinamo Stavropol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dinamo Stavropol win52%49%+3
Draw25%27%−2
Irtysh Omsk win23%24%−1
Over 2.5 goals49%47%+2
Both teams to score51%50%+1
Over 1.5 goals74%70%+4
Over 3.5 goals28%27%+1
Dinamo Stavropol or draw77%76%+1
Dinamo Stavropol clean sheet37%––
Irtysh Omsk clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 7.7 6.9 3.6 1 11.3 11.8 5.8 2 9.4 9.3 4.7 3 5.2 5.1 2.6 4 2.2 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Stavropol down, Irtysh Omsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsIRT 0–1 DIN · DIN 1–1 IRT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 5 Sept

DINAMO STAVROPOL

WLLLWL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–3

IRTYSH OMSK

LLLWLL0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zenit 212+2732
2Amkar12+1022
3Tyumen12+822
4Torpedo Miass12+419
5Dinamo Stavropol12−1011
6Dinamo Moskva II12−228
7Irtysh Omsk12−177

The competition's standings before kick-off.