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Home › Football › Second League A - Division A Silver › Amkar v Irtysh Omsk

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Amkar v Irtysh Omsk

Amkar
4–1Full time
Irtysh Omsk

Second League A - Division A Silver · SAT 17 OCT · Zvezda Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Amkar 4–1 Irtysh Omsk AMKAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Amkar win65%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.185
The market’s Brier score0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Amkar win at 65%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Amkar 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Amkar v Irtysh Omsk
  4. 5′Amkar find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Amkar 1–0 Irtysh Omsk
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Amkar win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
  7. 6′We said Amkar at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
  8. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Irtysh Omsk
  9. 8′We said Amkar at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–5
  10. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Irtysh Omsk
  11. 20′A goal for Amkar on 20′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  12. 20′We said Amkar at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Amkar 2–0 Irtysh Omsk
  14. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Amkar win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Amkar 2–0 Irtysh Omsk
  16. 46′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Amkar 2–0 Irtysh Omsk
  18. 53′Amkar score on 53′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Amkar 3–0 Irtysh Omsk
  20. 54′We said Amkar at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 56′54′: M. Novikov on the scoresheet for Amkar, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Irtysh Omsk
  23. 68′Irtysh Omsk find the net on 68′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  24. 68′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  25. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Amkar 3–1 Irtysh Omsk
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Amkar · On: L. Tolkachev · Off: E. Tyukalov
  27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Amkar · On: K. Burykin · Off: D. Agureev
  28. 77′Irtysh Omsk are down to ten from 77′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  29. 77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Irtysh Omsk
  30. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 77' N. Zhustjev · Irtysh Omsk
  31. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Amkar · On: A. Pridyuk · Off: D. Mikhaylov
  32. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Amkar · On: N. Khvat · Off: M. Malozemov
  33. 92′A goal for Amkar on 90′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 92′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Amkar 4–1 Irtysh Omsk
  36. FTFULL TIME Amkar 4–1 Irtysh Omsk
  37. FTAmkar 4–1 Irtysh Omsk · Amkar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Amkar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Amkar 65%, draw 20%, Irtysh Omsk 15%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Amkar v Irtysh OmskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Amkar win65%
Draw20%
Irtysh Omsk win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundDivision A Silver · matchday 14

VenueZvezda Stadium

Line-ups

Amkar

Irtysh Omsk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amkar

Irtysh Omsk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League A - Division A Silver

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League A - Division A Silver

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Amkar11+719
6Irtysh Omsk11−147

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Amkar

Formation not confirmed

57 E. Trifonov

4 E. Gallyamov

78 D. Kumsarov

15 K. Saraev

17 M. Malozemov

88 M. Novikov

23 D. Mikhaylov

11 V. Ignatenko

9 D. Agureev

10 D. Usov

7 E. Tyukalov

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · V. Dolzhenko

3 · M. Smolnikov

28 · G. Zhilkin

45 · A. Pridyuk

6 · L. Tolkachev

8 · A. Matsukatov

19 · K. Popov

14 · D. Chushyalov

77 · E. Snegirev

89 · N. Khvat

97 · N. Goldobin

31 · K. Burykin

Irtysh Omsk

Formation not confirmed

60 V. Poletaev

9 N. Zhustjev

12 A. Antonov

15 M. Zhustjev

23 A. Kulakov

8 A. Markosyan

10 R. Yanushkovskiy

11 K. Kovalchuk

30 P. Razdymakha

55 K. Shokhin

7 A. Razborov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · N. Elistratov

20 · I. Korobochkin

24 · P. Razdymakha

25 · S. Rusyaev

77 · G. Galstyan

99 · P. Makarov

27 · D. Gribanov

Our number · amkar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
65% The market42%
Us65%
Market42%

We make Amkar a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 23 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Amkar v Irtysh Omsk2.20 – 0.95
Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 30 AugW2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 19 v 73 v 6
The market · Amkar win42% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70%80% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 11:45
Our probability · Amkar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Amkar win65%42%+23
Draw20%18%+2
Irtysh Omsk win15%40%−25
Over 2.5 goals60%73%−13
Both teams to score54%69%−15
Over 1.5 goals82%81%+1
Over 3.5 goals39%53%−14
Amkar or draw85%60%+25
Amkar clean sheet39%––
Irtysh Omsk clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.2%
0123450 4.8 4.0 2.0 1 9.3 9.2 4.2 2 10.2 9.5 4.5 3 7.5 6.9 3.3 4 4.2 3.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Amkar down, Irtysh Omsk across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsIRT 0–3 AMK · IRT 3–2 AMK · AMK 1–3 IRT · IRT 1–0 AMK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Silver this season · since 30 Aug

AMKAR

DLWWLL2–2 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3

IRTYSH OMSK

LLLLWL0–5 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zenit 211+2529
2Tyumen12+822
3Amkar11+719
4Torpedo Miass11+418
5Dinamo Stavropol11−811
6Irtysh Omsk11−147
7Dinamo Moskva II11−227

The competition's standings before kick-off.