Volgar Astrakhan v Novosibirsk prediction · Second League A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Volgar Astrakhan 1–1 Novosibirsk VOLGAR ASTRAKHAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Volgar Astrakhan win~~37%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.703

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.786

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volgar Astrakhan win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Volgar Astrakhan v Novosibirsk
4′Much as we predicted: Volgar Astrakhan was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
7′Much as we predicted: Volgar Astrakhan was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Volgar Astrakhan
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Novosibirsk
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Volgar Astrakhan win 32%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Novosibirsk
45′HALF-TIME Volgar Astrakhan 0–0 Novosibirsk
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Volgar Astrakhan win 32%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 25' M. Strelnik · Volgar Astrakhan
45′🟨 YELLOW · 34' A. Kobyalko · Novosibirsk
46′SECOND HALF Volgar Astrakhan 0–0 Novosibirsk
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Volgar Astrakhan 0–1 Novosibirsk
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Volgar Astrakhan 1–1 Novosibirsk
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Volgar Astrakhan · On: K. Kolesnichenko · Off: M. Strelnik
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Volgar Astrakhan
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Novosibirsk
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Volgar Astrakhan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Volgar Astrakhan · On: Y. Petrovskiy · Off: D. Pelikh
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Volgar Astrakhan · On: A. Nosov · Off: V. Krotov
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Novosibirsk · On: V. Laptev · Off: V. Vshivkov
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Novosibirsk · On: A. Popushoy · Off: B. Boldyrev
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Volgar Astrakhan · On: A. Radjabov · Off: D. Anosov
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Volgar Astrakhan
FTFULL TIME Volgar Astrakhan 1–1 Novosibirsk
FTVolgar Astrakhan 1–1 Novosibirsk · Volgar Astrakhan win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Volgar Astrakhan win37%

Draw32%

Novosibirsk win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueTsentralnyi Stadion

Line-ups

Volgar Astrakhan

Novosibirsk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Volgar Astrakhan

Novosibirsk

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Novosibirsk	12	+3	18
8	Volgar Astrakhan	12	−1	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Volgar Astrakhan

Formation not confirmed

5 M. Strelnik

7 A. Pavlishin

10 V. Morozov

13 D. Ivanov

17 D. Lesnikov

26 D. Pelikh

28 E. Proshkin

57 V. Krotov

67 K. Volkov

69 D. Anosov

71 A. Mamin

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · V. Yampolskiy

9 · A. Chupayov

11 · A. Nosov

14 · A. Radjabov

19 · K. Kolesnichenko

23 · Y. Petrovskiy

25 · A. Yuran

34 · O. Dmitriev

58 · I. Zuev

Novosibirsk

Formation not confirmed

3 D. Petrunin

4 D. Redkovich

5 I. Maksimenkov

8 B. Boldyrev

11 O. Nikolaev

22 A. Kobyalko

31 G. Zotov

35 M. Kiselev

53 A. Deryugin

81 A. Yangaev

91 V. Vshivkov

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · A. Popushoy

16 · A. Karmin

18 · E. Sinyakov

19 · S. Zapalatskiy

20 · V. Laptev

30 · A. Alizade

Our number · volgar astrakhan winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

37% The market33%

Us37%

~~Market~~33%

We make Volgar Astrakhan a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · volgar astrakhan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volgar Astrakhan win	37%	33%	+4
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Novosibirsk win	31%	39%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	41%	51%	−11
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	30%	−10
Volgar Astrakhan or draw	69%	61%	+8
Volgar Astrakhan clean sheet	34%	–	–
Novosibirsk clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 11.9 9.2 6.0 2.2 1 10.3 14.7 7.1 2.6 2 7.3 7.8 4.3 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volgar Astrakhan down, Novosibirsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 424 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.14 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volgar Astrakhan at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Novosibirsk away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Volgar Astrakhan, 1.10 for Novosibirsk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NOV 2–2 VOL · VOL 1–1 NOV · NOV 2–2 VOL · NOV 0–1 VOL

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold

VOLGAR ASTRAKHAN

DDDDDD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–4 · 0–0

NOVOSIBIRSK

LLDWWW0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	12	+13	26
2	Dinamo Kirov	13	+4	24
3	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	13	+5	18
4	Novosibirsk	12	+3	18
5	Dinamo Bryansk	12	−4	16
6	Mashuk-KMV	13	0	15
7	Dinamo Vladivostok	12	−1	14
8	Volgar Astrakhan	12	−1	12
9	FK Sokol Saratov	12	−9	9
10	Kaluga	13	−10	7