Volgar Astrakhan v Dinamo Bryansk prediction · Second League A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Volgar Astrakhan 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk VOLGAR ASTRAKHAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volgar Astrakhan win~~47%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.922

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volgar Astrakhan win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Volgar Astrakhan was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–31–22
1′KICK-OFF Volgar Astrakhan v Dinamo Bryansk
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Volgar Astrakhan win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Volgar Astrakhan win 40%)
45′HALF-TIME Volgar Astrakhan 0–0 Dinamo Bryansk
46′SECOND HALF Volgar Astrakhan 0–0 Dinamo Bryansk
47′We said Volgar Astrakhan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–45–20
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Volgar Astrakhan · On: D. Poluboyarinov · Off: M. Strelnik
50′We said Volgar Astrakhan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
51′Dinamo Bryansk score on 51′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–25–66
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Volgar Astrakhan 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Volgar Astrakhan win: 47% at kick-off, 9% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Dinamo Bryansk win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 47%)
52′We said Volgar Astrakhan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 9–24–67
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Volgar Astrakhan win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Volgar Astrakhan · On: K. Kolesnichenko · Off: A. Chupayov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Volgar Astrakhan · On: E. Kovalevskiy · Off: D. Anosov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Volgar Astrakhan · On: Y. Petrovskiy · Off: D. Pelikh
66′We said Volgar Astrakhan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Bryansk · On: I. Solovyov · Off: D. Konoplev
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Volgar Astrakhan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dinamo Bryansk · On: N. Mankov · Off: D. Osokin
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Volgar Astrakhan · On: O. Dmitriev · Off: V. Krotov
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Volgar Astrakhan
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Dinamo Bryansk · On: K. Volovich · Off: V. Kondrashov
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Dinamo Bryansk · On: D. Pikatov · Off: V. Drogunov
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Dinamo Bryansk
FTFULL TIME Volgar Astrakhan 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk
FTVolgar Astrakhan 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk · Volgar Astrakhan win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volgar Astrakhan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volgar Astrakhan 47%, draw 31%, Dinamo Bryansk 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Volgar Astrakhan v Dinamo BryanskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Volgar Astrakhan win47%

Draw31%

Dinamo Bryansk win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 15

VenueTsentralnyi Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volgar Astrakhan

Dinamo Bryansk

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Dinamo Bryansk	14	−8	16
8	Volgar Astrakhan	14	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volgar astrakhan winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Volgar Astrakhan a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volgar Astrakhan v Dinamo Bryansk~~1.39 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D6 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~8 v 7

~~The market · Volgar Astrakhan win~~46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volgar Astrakhan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volgar Astrakhan win	47%	46%	+1
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Dinamo Bryansk win	22%	27%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Both teams to score	45%	55%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	30%	−10
Volgar Astrakhan or draw	78%	73%	+5
Volgar Astrakhan clean sheet	42%	–	–
Dinamo Bryansk clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.7 7.3 4.1 1 12.5 14.3 5.5 2 9.9 8.5 3.7 3 4.6 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volgar Astrakhan down, Dinamo Bryansk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 432 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.6% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volgar Astrakhan at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Bryansk away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Volgar Astrakhan, 0.88 for Dinamo Bryansk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–1 VOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 13 Sept

VOLGAR ASTRAKHAN

DDDDDD1–1 · 0–0 · 4–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

DINAMO BRYANSK

LWDLLL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	14	+14	30
2	Dinamo Kirov	14	+5	27
3	Novosibirsk	14	+3	20
4	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	14	+5	19
5	Dinamo Vladivostok	14	+1	17
6	Mashuk-KMV	14	0	16
7	Dinamo Bryansk	14	−8	16
8	Volgar Astrakhan	14	−1	14
9	Kaluga	14	−7	10
10	FK Sokol Saratov	14	−12	10