Rodina Moskva II v Volgar Astrakhan

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rodina Moskva II win at 41%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Rodina Moskva II v Volgar Astrakhan
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Rodina Moskva II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–28
4. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Volgar Astrakhan
5. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rodina Moskva II win 35%)
6. 45′HALF-TIME Rodina Moskva II 0–0 Volgar Astrakhan
7. 46′SECOND HALF Rodina Moskva II 0–0 Volgar Astrakhan
8. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Rodina Moskva II win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
9. 53′We said Rodina Moskva II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
10. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Volgar Astrakhan · On: A. Pavlishin · Off: V. Krotov
11. 64′We said Rodina Moskva II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–18
12. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Rodina Moskva II win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
13. 72′We said Rodina Moskva II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–15
14. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Volgar Astrakhan
15. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rodina Moskva II · On: V. Manukyan · Off: A. A. Khorin
16. 74′We published Rodina Moskva II at 41%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
17. 74′Rodina Moskva II score on 73′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
18. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Rodina Moskva II 1–0 Volgar Astrakhan
19. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Rodina Moskva II win: 41% at kick-off, 87% now
20. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Rodina Moskva II win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
21. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Volgar Astrakhan · On: A. Nosov · Off: A. Chupayov
22. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rodina Moskva II · On: E. Ushakov · Off: D. Tikhonov
23. 79′We published Rodina Moskva II at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
24. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Rodina Moskva II win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
25. 81′Volgar Astrakhan find the net on 81′. 1–1. 1–1 · 11–80–9
26. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Volgar Astrakhan · On: E. Kovalevskiy · Off: K. Kolesnichenko
27. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Rodina Moskva II 1–1 Volgar Astrakhan
28. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Rodina Moskva II win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
29. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Rodina Moskva II win 11%)
30. 82′We said Rodina Moskva II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–82–8
31. 82′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 10–82–8
32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Rodina Moskva II win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
33. 83′We said Rodina Moskva II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
34. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Rodina Moskva II
35. 90′We said Rodina Moskva II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
36. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Volgar Astrakhan
37. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Rodina Moskva II · On: I. Vozrastov · Off: D. Svintsov
38. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Rodina Moskva II win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
39. FTFULL TIME Rodina Moskva II 1–1 Volgar Astrakhan
40. FTRodina Moskva II 1–1 Volgar Astrakhan · Rodina Moskva II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.