Rodina Moskva II v Dinamo Kirov prediction · Second League A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rodina Moskva IIDrawDinamo Kirov

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rodina Moskva II 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rodina Moskva II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moskva II 38%, draw 30%, Dinamo Kirov 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Rodina Moskva II v Dinamo KirovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rodina Moskva II win38%

Draw30%

Dinamo Kirov win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 16

VenueSpartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodina Moskva II

Dinamo Kirov

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodina moskva ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Rodina Moskva II a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodina Moskva II v Dinamo Kirov~~1.37 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 30 v 30~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodina Moskva II win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Dinamo Kirov win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Rodina Moskva II or draw	68%	–	–
Rodina Moskva II clean sheet	30%	–	–
Dinamo Kirov clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 9.5 7.5 5.6 2.3 1 8.6 14.1 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.4 5.1 2.1 3 3.2 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodina Moskva II down, Dinamo Kirov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 437 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodina Moskva II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Kirov away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Rodina Moskva II, 1.22 for Dinamo Kirov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DIN 3–2 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 20 Sept

RODINA MOSKVA II

WLWWDL1–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

DINAMO KIROV

WWDLWW3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Kirov	15	+10	30
2	Rodina Moskva II	15	+11	30
3	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	15	+6	22
4	Novosibirsk	15	−2	20
5	Dinamo Bryansk	15	−7	19
6	Dinamo Vladivostok	15	+1	18
7	Mashuk-KMV	15	0	17
8	Volgar Astrakhan	15	−2	14
9	FK Sokol Saratov	15	−9	13
10	Kaluga	15	−8	10