Novosibirsk v Mashuk-KMV prediction · Second League A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NovosibirskDrawMashuk-KMV

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Novosibirsk 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Novosibirsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Novosibirsk 39%, draw 32%, Mashuk-KMV 30%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Novosibirsk v Mashuk-KMVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Novosibirsk win39%

Draw32%

Mashuk-KMV win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 16

VenueStadion Spartak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Novosibirsk

Mashuk-KMV

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Novosibirsk	15	−2	20
7	Mashuk-KMV	15	0	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · novosibirsk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Novosibirsk a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Novosibirsk v Mashuk-KMV~~1.26 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D6 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 17~~4 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Novosibirsk win	39%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Mashuk-KMV win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Novosibirsk or draw	70%	–	–
Novosibirsk clean sheet	35%	–	–
Mashuk-KMV clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 11.7 8.6 5.6 2.0 1 10.4 14.7 6.9 2.5 2 7.7 8.1 4.3 3 3.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Novosibirsk down, Mashuk-KMV across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 437 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Novosibirsk at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Mashuk-KMV away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Novosibirsk, 1.07 for Mashuk-KMV. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAS 3–1 NOV · MAS 2–0 NOV · NOV 2–2 MAS · MAS 1–0 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 20 Sept

NOVOSIBIRSK

WWWDDL3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–6

MASHUK-KMV

DDDDDD0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Kirov	15	+10	30
2	Rodina Moskva II	15	+11	30
3	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	15	+6	22
4	Novosibirsk	15	−2	20
5	Dinamo Bryansk	15	−7	19
6	Dinamo Vladivostok	15	+1	18
7	Mashuk-KMV	15	0	17
8	Volgar Astrakhan	15	−2	14
9	FK Sokol Saratov	15	−9	13
10	Kaluga	15	−8	10