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Mashuk-KMV v Dinamo Vladivostok

Mashuk-KMV

2–2Full time

Dinamo Vladivostok

Second League A - Division A Gold · SAT 24 OCT · Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Mashuk-KMV 2–2 Dinamo Vladivostok MASHUK-KMV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mashuk-KMV win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.645

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.654

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mashuk-KMV win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mashuk-KMV was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–35–26
1′KICK-OFF Mashuk-KMV v Dinamo Vladivostok
11′Mashuk-KMV find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–9
11′We published Mashuk-KMV at 39%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–9
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Mashuk-KMV 1–0 Dinamo Vladivostok
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Mashuk-KMV win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
14′Mashuk-KMV ahead on 12′ through S. Torosyan. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
19′A goal for Dinamo Vladivostok on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–38–26
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Mashuk-KMV 1–1 Dinamo Vladivostok
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Mashuk-KMV win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Mashuk-KMV
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Mashuk-KMV win 74%)
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Dinamo Vladivostok
29′Mashuk-KMV score on 29′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 75–18–6
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Mashuk-KMV 2–1 Dinamo Vladivostok
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Mashuk-KMV win: 39% at kick-off, 75% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Mashuk-KMV win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 41%)
30′We published Mashuk-KMV at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–6
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 75–18–6
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Mashuk-KMV
40′Dinamo Vladivostok find the net on 39′. 2–2. 2–2 · 32–45–23
40′4 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 32–45–23
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Mashuk-KMV 2–2 Dinamo Vladivostok
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mashuk-KMV win: 39% at kick-off, 32% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Mashuk-KMV win 77%)
45′HALF-TIME Mashuk-KMV 2–2 Dinamo Vladivostok
46′SECOND HALF Mashuk-KMV 2–2 Dinamo Vladivostok
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Mashuk-KMV win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mashuk-KMV · On: E. Plotnikov · Off: V. Shaykhutdinov
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mashuk-KMV · On: A. Krachkovskiy · Off: R. Gystarov
52′We said Mashuk-KMV at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 2–2 · 27–52–20
57′🟨 YELLOW · 34' G. Budunov · Mashuk-KMV
59′We said Mashuk-KMV at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–57–18
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Dinamo Vladivostok · On: S. Alekseev · Off: A. Amelin
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Dinamo Vladivostok · On: A. Semenov · Off: E. Pesikov
68′We said Mashuk-KMV at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–66–15
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Mashuk-KMV win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mashuk-KMV · On: E. Krakhmalev · Off: A. Domotsev
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Vladivostok · On: D. Rashchupkin · Off: N. Kasatkin
76′We said Mashuk-KMV at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–75–11
82′We said Mashuk-KMV at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Mashuk-KMV win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Mashuk-KMV
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Dinamo Vladivostok
89′We said Mashuk-KMV at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Mashuk-KMV · On: D. Bogomolov · Off: E. Krakhmalev
FTFULL TIME Mashuk-KMV 2–2 Dinamo Vladivostok
FTMashuk-KMV 2–2 Dinamo Vladivostok · Mashuk-KMV win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mashuk-KMV just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mashuk-KMV 39%, draw 35%, Dinamo Vladivostok 26%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Mashuk-KMV v Dinamo VladivostokBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mashuk-KMV win39%

Draw35%

Dinamo Vladivostok win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 15

VenueCentral Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mashuk-KMV

Dinamo Vladivostok

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dinamo Vladivostok	14	+1	17
6	Mashuk-KMV	14	0	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mashuk-kmv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Mashuk-KMV a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mashuk-KMV v Dinamo Vladivostok~~1.10 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D5 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 17~~6 v 5

~~The market · Mashuk-KMV win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mashuk-KMV win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mashuk-KMV win	39%	39%	0
Draw	35%	34%	+1
Dinamo Vladivostok win	26%	27%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
Both teams to score	40%	49%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	60%	66%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	14%	23%	−9
Mashuk-KMV or draw	74%	73%	+1
Mashuk-KMV clean sheet	42%	–	–
Dinamo Vladivostok clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 10.1 5.3 1 13.4 15.1 5.7 2 8.4 7.2 3.1 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mashuk-KMV down, Dinamo Vladivostok across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 432 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.6% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mashuk-KMV at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Vladivostok away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Mashuk-KMV, 0.87 for Dinamo Vladivostok. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–0 MAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 Sept

MASHUK-KMV

LDDDDD1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–3

DINAMO VLADIVOSTOK

DLDDWL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	14	+14	30
2	Dinamo Kirov	14	+5	27
3	Novosibirsk	14	+3	20
4	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	14	+5	19
5	Dinamo Vladivostok	14	+1	17
6	Mashuk-KMV	14	0	16
7	Dinamo Bryansk	14	−8	16
8	Volgar Astrakhan	14	−1	14
9	Kaluga	14	−7	10
10	FK Sokol Saratov	14	−12	10