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Kaluga v Mashuk-KMV

Kaluga

0–0Full time

Mashuk-KMV

Second League A - Division A Gold · SAT 10 OCT · Orbita stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Kaluga 0–0 Mashuk-KMV MASHUK-KMV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Mashuk-KMV win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.739

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mashuk-KMV win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Kaluga v Mashuk-KMV
2′Little has changed for our model: Mashuk-KMV 38% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 28–32–40
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Mashuk-KMV win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Kaluga 0–0 Mashuk-KMV
46′SECOND HALF Kaluga 0–0 Mashuk-KMV
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Mashuk-KMV
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Mashuk-KMV win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mashuk-KMV · On: R. Guseynov · Off: E. Saygushev Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mashuk-KMV · On: A. Krachkovskiy · Off: E. Saygushev
71′We said Mashuk-KMV at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 13–69–17
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Mashuk-KMV win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Mashuk-KMV
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Kaluga
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kaluga · On: A. Balkizov · Off: D. Shevchenko
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kaluga · On: I. Sokolov · Off: D. Sherstobitov
88′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Mashuk-KMV · On: D. Bogomolov · Off: A. Abazov
90′We said Mashuk-KMV at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Mashuk-KMV win: 38% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Kaluga 0–0 Mashuk-KMV
FTKaluga 0–0 Mashuk-KMV · Mashuk-KMV win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kaluga win27%

Draw35%

Mashuk-KMV win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Orbita stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kaluga

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Eshchenko

2 S. Krotov

5 V. Konovalov

17 Y. Sychev

19 N. Y. Kuzin

27 I. Muminov

33 D. Daliev

37 D. Shevchenko

59 D. Sherstobitov

66 Y. Makarenko

70 G. Bakharev

Coach · Evgeni Losev

Substitutes

6 · M. Zakharov

8 · D. Klishchenko

11 · A. Balkizov

12 · E. Lipaev

18 · L. Ivanushkin

31 · N. Pervakov

32 · I. Sokolov

77 · K. Balashov

78 · E. Mukhin

88 · R. Tashaev

91 · E. Lukinykh

94 · A. Nadolsky

Mashuk-KMV

Formation not confirmed

3 R. Khagur

4 R. Machilov

7 S. Torosyan

8 E. Saygushev

9 G. Budunov

10 R. Gystarov

11 I. Selemenev

23 A. Abazov

51 E. Plotnikov

88 Z. Magomedov

95 C. Magomadov

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · A. Krachkovskiy

21 · D. Bogomolov

33 · A. Domotsev

44 · E. Krakhmalev

47 · R. Guseynov

86 · V. Shaykhutdinov

96 · K. Pomeshkin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kaluga

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Eshchenko

2 S. Krotov

5 V. Konovalov

17 Y. Sychev

19 N. Y. Kuzin

27 I. Muminov

33 D. Daliev

37 D. Shevchenko

59 D. Sherstobitov

66 Y. Makarenko

70 G. Bakharev

Coach · Evgeni Losev

Substitutes

6 · M. Zakharov

8 · D. Klishchenko

11 · A. Balkizov

12 · E. Lipaev

18 · L. Ivanushkin

31 · N. Pervakov

32 · I. Sokolov

77 · K. Balashov

78 · E. Mukhin

88 · R. Tashaev

91 · E. Lukinykh

94 · A. Nadolsky

Mashuk-KMV

Formation not confirmed

3 R. Khagur

4 R. Machilov

7 S. Torosyan

8 E. Saygushev

9 G. Budunov

10 R. Gystarov

11 I. Selemenev

23 A. Abazov

51 E. Plotnikov

88 Z. Magomedov

95 C. Magomadov

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · A. Krachkovskiy

21 · D. Bogomolov

33 · A. Domotsev

44 · E. Krakhmalev

47 · R. Guseynov

86 · V. Shaykhutdinov

96 · K. Pomeshkin

Our number · mashuk-kmv winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Mashuk-KMV a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mashuk-kmv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaluga win	27%	29%	−2
Draw	35%	30%	+5
Mashuk-KMV win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	30%	47%	−17
Both teams to score	39%	53%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	59%	71%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	13%	28%	−15
Kaluga or draw	62%	59%	+3
Kaluga clean sheet	35%	–	–
Mashuk-KMV clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.9%

0123450 16.9 13.9 8.3 3.0 1 10.7 14.9 7.0 2.5 2 5.3 5.6 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaluga down, Mashuk-KMV across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 422 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kaluga at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mashuk-KMV away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Kaluga, 1.06 for Mashuk-KMV. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MAS 1–1 KAL · KAL 3–0 MAS · MAS 1–1 KAL

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold

KALUGA

DDDLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–3

MASHUK-KMV

LWLDDD0–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	12	+13	26
2	Dinamo Kirov	12	+5	24
3	Novosibirsk	12	+3	18
4	Dinamo Bryansk	12	−4	16
5	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	12	+4	15
6	Mashuk-KMV	12	0	14
7	Dinamo Vladivostok	12	−1	14
8	Volgar Astrakhan	12	−1	12
9	FK Sokol Saratov	12	−9	9
10	Kaluga	12	−10	6