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FK Sokol Saratov v Rodina Moskva II
FK Sokol SaratovRodina Moskva IISecond League A - Division A Gold · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Lokomotiv
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Rodina Moskva II win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Rodina Moskva II 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 28–30–42
- 1′KICK-OFF FK Sokol Saratov v Rodina Moskva II
- 8′A goal for FK Sokol Saratov on 8′. 0–0 · 28–31–41
- 9′We said Rodina Moskva II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
- 9′A. Ukomskiy scores for FK Sokol Saratov on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–22–19
- 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' FK Sokol Saratov 1–0 Rodina Moskva II
- 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Rodina Moskva II win: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
- 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' FK Sokol Saratov win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Rodina Moskva II win 41%)
- 25′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Rodina Moskva II · On: D. Mushkarin · Off: E. Ushakov
- 30′We said Rodina Moskva II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 62–23–14
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Rodina Moskva II win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 45′HALF-TIME FK Sokol Saratov 1–0 Rodina Moskva II
- 46′SECOND HALF FK Sokol Saratov 1–0 Rodina Moskva II
- 48′We said Rodina Moskva II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' FK Sokol Saratov
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Rodina Moskva II
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 54' FK Sokol Saratov · On: I. Shilenok · Off: A. Perchenok
- 62′FK Sokol Saratov score on 61′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1
- 62′We said Rodina Moskva II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' FK Sokol Saratov 2–0 Rodina Moskva II
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Rodina Moskva II win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
- 63′FK Sokol Saratov find the net on 63′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' FK Sokol Saratov 3–0 Rodina Moskva II
- 64′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Rodina Moskva II
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FK Sokol Saratov · On: I. Vasilevich · Off: V. Azarov
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FK Sokol Saratov · On: V. Shpitalnyi · Off: A. Ukomskiy
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' FK Sokol Saratov
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rodina Moskva II · On: N. Savin · Off: D. Tikhonov
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rodina Moskva II · On: G. Knyazev · Off: A. A. Khorin
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Rodina Moskva II
- FTFULL TIME FK Sokol Saratov 3–0 Rodina Moskva II
- FTFK Sokol Saratov 3–0 Rodina Moskva II · Rodina Moskva II win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Rodina Moskva II are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FK Sokol Saratov 28%, draw 30%, Rodina Moskva II 42%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
FK Sokol Saratov win28%Rodina Moskva II win42%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00
RoundFall season Gold · matchday 15
VenueStadion Lokomotiv
Match timeline
All events
FK Sokol SaratovMINRodina Moskva IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FK Sokol Saratov
Rodina Moskva II
Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold
Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | +14 | 30 |
| 10 | FK Sokol Saratov | 14 | −12 | 10 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Rodina Moskva II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 30 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Sokol Saratov win | 28% | 11% | +17 |
| Draw | 30% | 17% | +13 |
| Rodina Moskva II win | 42% | 72% | −30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 59% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 80% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 38% | −13 |
| FK Sokol Saratov or draw | 58% | 28% | +30 |
| FK Sokol Saratov clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
| Rodina Moskva II clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 Sept
FK SOKOL SARATOV
RODINA MOSKVA II
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | +14 | 30 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Kirov | 14 | +5 | 27 |
| 3 |  Novosibirsk | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 4 |  Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 14 | +5 | 19 |
| 5 |  Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | +1 | 17 |
| 6 |  Mashuk-KMV | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 |  Dinamo Bryansk | 14 | −8 | 16 |
| 8 |  Volgar Astrakhan | 14 | −1 | 14 |
| 9 |  Kaluga | 14 | −7 | 10 |
| 10 | FK Sokol Saratov | 14 | −12 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.