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Dinamo Vladivostok v Dinamo Kirov

Dinamo Vladivostok
2–3Full time
Dinamo Kirov

Second League A - Division A Gold · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion Dinamo

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 07:30
Dinamo Vladivostok 2–3 Dinamo Kirov DINAMO VLADIVOSTOK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dinamo Vladivostok win37%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.760
The market’s Brier score0.535

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Vladivostok win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Vladivostok 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–34–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Vladivostok v Dinamo Kirov
  4. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Dinamo Kirov
  5. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dinamo Vladivostok win 34%)
  6. 39′A goal for Dinamo Kirov on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–69
  7. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Dinamo Vladivostok 0–1 Dinamo Kirov
  8. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Dinamo Vladivostok win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
  9. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Dinamo Kirov win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
  10. 40′We said Dinamo Vladivostok at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–70
  11. 40′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 8–22–70
  12. 44′E. Ignatovich scores for Dinamo Kirov on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
  13. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dinamo Vladivostok win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Vladivostok 0–1 Dinamo Kirov
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Vladivostok 0–1 Dinamo Kirov
  16. 58′We said Dinamo Vladivostok at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
  17. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Dinamo Kirov
  18. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Dinamo Kirov
  19. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 49' A. Malykh · Dinamo Kirov
  20. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 59' A. Stepanov · Dinamo Kirov
  21. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Vladivostok · On: D. Rashchupkin · Off: N. Kasatkin
  22. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Vladivostok · On: D. Kvekveskiri · Off: N. Sukhanov
  23. 82′Dinamo Vladivostok score on 82′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–84–7
  24. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Dinamo Vladivostok 1–1 Dinamo Kirov
  25. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Dinamo Kirov win 7%)
  26. 84′Dinamo Vladivostok find the net on 84′. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–5–0
  27. 84′M. Martinkevich scores for Dinamo Kirov on 80′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 7–88–6
  28. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Kirov · On: I. Gorjainov · Off: A. Burkov
  29. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Dinamo Vladivostok 2–1 Dinamo Kirov
  30. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Dinamo Vladivostok win: 37% at kick-off, 94% now
  31. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Dinamo Vladivostok win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 5%)
  32. 85′We said Dinamo Vladivostok at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Kirov · On: I. Dibirov · Off: M. Lauk
  34. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Dinamo Vladivostok
  35. 86′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–5–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  36. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Dinamo Vladivostok
  37. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Dinamo Kirov · On: M. Ageev · Off: B. Bilalov
  38. 89′Dinamo Kirov score on 89′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–96
  39. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Dinamo Vladivostok win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
  40. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Dinamo Vladivostok 2–3 Dinamo Kirov
  41. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Dinamo Kirov win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
  42. 90′5 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–3–97
  43. 91′A goal for Dinamo Kirov on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 3–95–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  44. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 3–95–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  45. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Dinamo Vladivostok 2–2 Dinamo Kirov
  46. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Dinamo Vladivostok win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
  47. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Dinamo Vladivostok win 3%)
  48. 92′90′: V. Solodarenko on the scoresheet for Dinamo Kirov, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
  49. FTFULL TIME Dinamo Vladivostok 2–3 Dinamo Kirov
  50. FTDinamo Vladivostok 2–3 Dinamo Kirov · Dinamo Vladivostok win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dinamo Vladivostok just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Vladivostok 37%, draw 34%, Dinamo Kirov 29%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Vladivostok v Dinamo KirovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Vladivostok win37%
Draw34%
Dinamo Kirov win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 05:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 14

VenueStadion Dinamo

Line-ups

Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Kirov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Kirov

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Dinamo Kirov13+424
5Dinamo Vladivostok13+217

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Vladivostok

Formation not confirmed

5 N. Sergeev

6 A. Amelin

8 N. Sukhanov

9 E. Pesikov

10 N. Kasatkin

13 V. Pochivalin

16 A. Kulagin

19 M. Mashnev

36 A. Voropaev

47 T. Nikolaev

91 S. Gribov

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · E. Steshin

7 · D. Rashchupkin

11 · D. Kvekveskiri

23 · M. Pechenkin

24 · T. Koshkarov

27 · S. Alekseev

28 · A. Semenov

44 · A. Yapryntsev

45 · A. Brovkin

79 · D. Antsiperov

98 · I. Polishchuk

Dinamo Kirov

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Zadiraka

6 M. Martinkevich

9 B. Bilalov

10 M. Lauk

12 A. Malykh

19 A. Stepanov

29 E. Ignatovich

47 V. Solodarenko

73 S. Kalinov

91 A. Filippov

99 A. Burkov

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · E. Kolobov

5 · I. Gorjainov

7 · I. Dibirov

8 · N. Kamaev

13 · M. Ageev

16 · A. Savin

17 · T. Bulatsev

24 · T. Sitnikov

27 · A. Chizh

98 · E. Pozdnyakov

Our number · dinamo vladivostok winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market32%
Us37%
Market32%

We make Dinamo Vladivostok a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dinamo Vladivostok v Dinamo Kirov1.09 – 0.93
Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 5 SeptW1 D4 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 17 v 245 v 2
The market · Dinamo Vladivostok win32% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0418 OCT 04:42
Our probability · Dinamo Vladivostok win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dinamo Vladivostok win37%32%+5
Draw34%27%+7
Dinamo Kirov win29%40%−11
Over 2.5 goals33%42%−9
Both teams to score41%48%−7
Over 1.5 goals61%67%−6
Over 3.5 goals15%21%−6
Dinamo Vladivostok or draw71%60%+11
Dinamo Vladivostok clean sheet40%––
Dinamo Kirov clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.5%
0123450 15.5 10.6 5.8 1 12.6 15.0 6.1 2 7.8 7.1 3.3 3 2.9 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Vladivostok down, Dinamo Kirov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting1.40
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsKIR 1–2 VLA · VLA 0–0 KIR · KIR 0–0 VLA · KIR 3–1 VLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 5 Sept

DINAMO VLADIVOSTOK

DDLDDW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

DINAMO KIROV

WWWWDL3–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rodina Moskva II13+1429
2Dinamo Kirov13+424
3Novosibirsk13+319
4Alaniya Vladikavkaz13+518
5Dinamo Vladivostok13+217
6Dinamo Bryansk13−516
7Mashuk-KMV13015
8Volgar Astrakhan13−113
9FK Sokol Saratov13−129
10Kaluga13−107

The competition's standings before kick-off.