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Dinamo Kirov v Novosibirsk
Dinamo Kirov
NovosibirskSecond League A - Division A Gold · SAT 24 OCT · VyatSShOR
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Kirov win at 36%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Kirov 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Kirov v Novosibirsk
- 23′Dinamo Kirov score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 23′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Dinamo Kirov
- 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Dinamo Kirov 1–0 Novosibirsk
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Dinamo Kirov win: 36% at kick-off, 69% now
- 25′27′: M. Lauk on the scoresheet for Dinamo Kirov, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Novosibirsk
- 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' N. Dorofeev · Dinamo Kirov
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–10
- 31′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
- 35′Dinamo Kirov find the net on 34′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
- 35′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Dinamo Kirov 2–0 Novosibirsk
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Dinamo Kirov win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
- 36′Novosibirsk are down to ten from 36′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 91–7–2
- 36′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Novosibirsk
- 45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Kirov 2–0 Novosibirsk
- 46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Kirov 2–0 Novosibirsk
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Novosibirsk · On: D. Petrunin · Off: I. Maksimenkov
- 49′Dinamo Kirov ahead on 38′ through B. Bilalov. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
- 51′A goal for Dinamo Kirov on 50′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 51′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 51′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Dinamo Kirov 3–0 Novosibirsk
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Dinamo Kirov win: 36% at kick-off, 99% now
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Novosibirsk
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Dinamo Kirov · On: M. Ageev · Off: B. Bilalov
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Dinamo Kirov · On: E. Pozdnyakov · Off: A. Filippov
- 62′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Novosibirsk · On: M. Zhitnev · Off: G. Zotov
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Novosibirsk · On: V. Vshivkov · Off: V. Laptev
- 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Dinamo Kirov
- 69′Novosibirsk score on 68′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Dinamo Kirov 3–1 Novosibirsk
- 72′Dinamo Kirov find the net on 72′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Kirov · On: E. Kolobov · Off: A. Chizh
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Kirov · On: I. Gorjainov · Off: M. Lauk
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Dinamo Kirov 4–1 Novosibirsk
- 73′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Novosibirsk
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Novosibirsk · On: A. Alizade · Off: B. Boldyrev
- 83′A goal for Dinamo Kirov on 83′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 83′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Dinamo Kirov 5–1 Novosibirsk
- 90′Dinamo Kirov score on 90′ to make it 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Dinamo Kirov 6–1 Novosibirsk
- 91′7 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Dinamo Kirov 6–1 Novosibirsk
- FTDinamo Kirov 6–1 Novosibirsk · Dinamo Kirov win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Dinamo Kirov just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Kirov 36%, draw 31%, Novosibirsk 33%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Dinamo Kirov win36%
Novosibirsk win33%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00
RoundFall season Gold · matchday 15
VenueVyatSShOR
Match timeline
All events
Dinamo KirovMIN
NovosibirskEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Dinamo Kirov
Novosibirsk
Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold
Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Dinamo Kirov a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Kirov win | 36% | 47% | −11 |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | +3 |
| Novosibirsk win | 33% | 25% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 30% | −7 |
| Dinamo Kirov or draw | 67% | 75% | −8 |
| Dinamo Kirov clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
| Novosibirsk clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 Sept
DINAMO KIROV
NOVOSIBIRSK
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | +14 | 30 |
| 2 | Dinamo Kirov | 14 | +5 | 27 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 4 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 14 | +5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | +1 | 17 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Dinamo Bryansk | 14 | −8 | 16 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 14 | −1 | 14 |
| 9 | Kaluga | 14 | −7 | 10 |
| 10 | FK Sokol Saratov | 14 | −12 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Rodina Moskva II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Dinamo Vladivostok
Mashuk-KMV
Dinamo Bryansk
Volgar Astrakhan
Kaluga
FK Sokol Saratov