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Model 1.2

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Dinamo Kirov v Novosibirsk

Dinamo Kirov
6–1Full time
Novosibirsk

Second League A - Division A Gold · SAT 24 OCT · VyatSShOR

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Dinamo Kirov 6–1 Novosibirsk DINAMO KIROV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dinamo Kirov win36%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.623
The market’s Brier score0.426

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Kirov win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Kirov 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Kirov v Novosibirsk
  4. 23′Dinamo Kirov score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  5. 23′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  6. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Dinamo Kirov
  7. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Dinamo Kirov 1–0 Novosibirsk
  8. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Dinamo Kirov win: 36% at kick-off, 69% now
  9. 25′27′: M. Lauk on the scoresheet for Dinamo Kirov, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  10. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Novosibirsk
  11. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' N. Dorofeev · Dinamo Kirov
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–10
  13. 31′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
  14. 35′Dinamo Kirov find the net on 34′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  15. 35′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  16. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Dinamo Kirov 2–0 Novosibirsk
  17. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Dinamo Kirov win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
  18. 36′Novosibirsk are down to ten from 36′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  19. 36′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Novosibirsk
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Kirov 2–0 Novosibirsk
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Kirov 2–0 Novosibirsk
  22. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Novosibirsk · On: D. Petrunin · Off: I. Maksimenkov
  23. 49′Dinamo Kirov ahead on 38′ through B. Bilalov. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  24. 51′A goal for Dinamo Kirov on 50′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  25. 51′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  26. 51′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  27. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Dinamo Kirov 3–0 Novosibirsk
  28. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Dinamo Kirov win: 36% at kick-off, 99% now
  29. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Novosibirsk
  30. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Dinamo Kirov · On: M. Ageev · Off: B. Bilalov
  31. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Dinamo Kirov · On: E. Pozdnyakov · Off: A. Filippov
  32. 62′We said Dinamo Kirov at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Novosibirsk · On: M. Zhitnev · Off: G. Zotov
  34. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Novosibirsk · On: V. Vshivkov · Off: V. Laptev
  35. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Dinamo Kirov
  36. 69′Novosibirsk score on 68′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  37. 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  38. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Dinamo Kirov 3–1 Novosibirsk
  39. 72′Dinamo Kirov find the net on 72′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Kirov · On: E. Kolobov · Off: A. Chizh
  41. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Kirov · On: I. Gorjainov · Off: M. Lauk
  42. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Dinamo Kirov 4–1 Novosibirsk
  43. 73′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  44. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Novosibirsk
  45. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Novosibirsk · On: A. Alizade · Off: B. Boldyrev
  46. 83′A goal for Dinamo Kirov on 83′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  47. 83′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  48. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Dinamo Kirov 5–1 Novosibirsk
  49. 90′Dinamo Kirov score on 90′ to make it 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  50. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Dinamo Kirov 6–1 Novosibirsk
  51. 91′7 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  52. FTFULL TIME Dinamo Kirov 6–1 Novosibirsk
  53. FTDinamo Kirov 6–1 Novosibirsk · Dinamo Kirov win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dinamo Kirov just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Kirov 36%, draw 31%, Novosibirsk 33%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Kirov v NovosibirskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Kirov win36%
Draw31%
Novosibirsk win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 15

VenueVyatSShOR

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Kirov

Novosibirsk

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Dinamo Kirov14+527
3Novosibirsk14+320

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo kirov winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
36% The market47%
Us36%
Market47%

We make Dinamo Kirov a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dinamo Kirov v Novosibirsk1.24 – 1.19
Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 27 v 202 v 3
The market · Dinamo Kirov win47% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:52
Our probability · Dinamo Kirov win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dinamo Kirov win36%47%−11
Draw31%28%+3
Novosibirsk win33%25%+8
Over 2.5 goals44%50%−6
Both teams to score51%54%−3
Over 1.5 goals71%73%−2
Over 3.5 goals23%30%−7
Dinamo Kirov or draw67%75%−8
Dinamo Kirov clean sheet31%––
Novosibirsk clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%
0123450 11.1 8.6 6.2 2.5 1 9.0 14.7 7.6 3.0 2 6.8 7.9 4.7 3 2.8 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Kirov down, Novosibirsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored4 of 5
Last meetingsNOV 0–1 DIN · DIN 2–1 NOV · NOV 4–1 DIN · DIN 1–2 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 Sept

DINAMO KIROV

WWWDLW1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

NOVOSIBIRSK

DWWWDD0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rodina Moskva II14+1430
2Dinamo Kirov14+527
3Novosibirsk14+320
4Alaniya Vladikavkaz14+519
5Dinamo Vladivostok14+117
6Mashuk-KMV14016
7Dinamo Bryansk14−816
8Volgar Astrakhan14−114
9Kaluga14−710
10FK Sokol Saratov14−1210

The competition's standings before kick-off.