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Dinamo Kirov v Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Dinamo Kirov

0–1Full time

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Second League A - Division A Gold · SAT 10 OCT · VyatSShOR

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz DINAMO KIROV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Kirov win~~43%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.962

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Kirov win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Kirov was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Kirov v Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz
22′7′ and it is 0–1: Z. Ramonov on the scoresheet for Alaniya Vladikavkaz. 0–1 · 16–25–59
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Dinamo Kirov win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Dinamo Kirov win 16%)
42′We said Dinamo Kirov at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–65
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Dinamo Kirov win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Kirov · On: E. Kolobov · Off: S. Kalinov
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Kirov · On: M. Lauk · Off: A. Chizh
60′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Dinamo Kirov · On: N. Dorofeev · Off: N. Kamaev
66′We said Dinamo Kirov at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
68′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dinamo Kirov · On: M. Ageev · Off: B. Bilalov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: A. Bagaev · Off: A. Kuskov
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Alaniya Vladikavkaz
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Dinamo Kirov
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dinamo Kirov · On: I. Gorjainov · Off: A. Burkov
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: M. Abdulkhamidov · Off: I. Matyushenko
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: B. Gurtsiev · Off: Z. Ramonov
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Dinamo Kirov win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: D. Tepsikoev · Off: S. Kachmazov
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FTDinamo Kirov 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz · Dinamo Kirov win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dinamo Kirov win43%

Draw31%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · VyatSShOR

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dinamo Kirov

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Zadiraka

6 M. Martinkevich

8 N. Kamaev

9 B. Bilalov

12 A. Malykh

27 A. Chizh

29 E. Ignatovich

47 V. Solodarenko

73 S. Kalinov

91 A. Filippov

99 A. Burkov

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · E. Kolobov

5 · I. Gorjainov

7 · I. Dibirov

10 · M. Lauk

13 · M. Ageev

16 · A. Savin

17 · T. Bulatsev

19 · A. Stepanov

22 · D. Maltsev

24 · T. Sitnikov

89 · N. Dorofeev

98 · E. Pozdnyakov

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Byazrov

3 A. Kuskov

4 S. Kachmazov

8 A. Khugaev

9 A. M. Zakirov

11 I. Matyushenko

17 R. Daurov

21 A. Kozyrev

30 D. Shavlokhov

55 Z. Ramonov

75 S. Ogoev

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · A. Bagaev

7 · B. Gurtsiev

10 · D. Kobesov

19 · A. Butaev

23 · V. Nafikov

31 · G. Natabashvili

57 · D. Tepsikoev

99 · M. Abdulkhamidov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Kirov

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Zadiraka

6 M. Martinkevich

8 N. Kamaev

9 B. Bilalov

12 A. Malykh

27 A. Chizh

29 E. Ignatovich

47 V. Solodarenko

73 S. Kalinov

91 A. Filippov

99 A. Burkov

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · E. Kolobov

5 · I. Gorjainov

7 · I. Dibirov

10 · M. Lauk

13 · M. Ageev

16 · A. Savin

17 · T. Bulatsev

19 · A. Stepanov

22 · D. Maltsev

24 · T. Sitnikov

89 · N. Dorofeev

98 · E. Pozdnyakov

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Byazrov

3 A. Kuskov

4 S. Kachmazov

8 A. Khugaev

9 A. M. Zakirov

11 I. Matyushenko

17 R. Daurov

21 A. Kozyrev

30 D. Shavlokhov

55 Z. Ramonov

75 S. Ogoev

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · A. Bagaev

7 · B. Gurtsiev

10 · D. Kobesov

19 · A. Butaev

23 · V. Nafikov

31 · G. Natabashvili

57 · D. Tepsikoev

99 · M. Abdulkhamidov

Our number · dinamo kirov winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

43% The market51%

Us43%

~~Market~~51%

We make Dinamo Kirov a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dinamo kirov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Kirov win	43%	51%	−9
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Alaniya Vladikavkaz win	27%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Dinamo Kirov or draw	73%	79%	−6
Dinamo Kirov clean sheet	36%	–	–
Alaniya Vladikavkaz clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 11.2 7.7 4.9 1 10.7 14.3 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.5 4.4 3 3.9 3.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Kirov down, Alaniya Vladikavkaz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 422 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Kirov at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Alaniya Vladikavkaz away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Dinamo Kirov, 1.03 for Alaniya Vladikavkaz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–0 DIN · ALA 2–1 DIN · DIN 1–2 ALA

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold

DINAMO KIROV

WWWWWD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

ALANIYA VLADIKAVKAZ

DDDLDW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 4–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	12	+13	26
2	Dinamo Kirov	12	+5	24
3	Novosibirsk	12	+3	18
4	Dinamo Bryansk	12	−4	16
5	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	12	+4	15
6	Mashuk-KMV	12	0	14
7	Dinamo Vladivostok	12	−1	14
8	Volgar Astrakhan	12	−1	12
9	FK Sokol Saratov	12	−9	9
10	Kaluga	12	−10	6