Home › Football › Second League A - Division A Gold › Dinamo Bryansk v Rodina Moskva II

Dinamo Bryansk v Rodina Moskva II

Dinamo Bryansk

2–3Full time

Rodina Moskva II

Second League A - Division A Gold · SUN 11 OCT · Dynamo Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Dinamo Bryansk 2–3 Rodina Moskva II RODINA MOSKVA II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rodina Moskva II win~~36%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.605

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.493

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rodina Moskva II win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rodina Moskva II was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
3′Rodina Moskva II find the net on 2′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
22′Rodina Moskva II ahead on 2′ through V. Samko. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
24′We published Rodina Moskva II at 36%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Rodina Moskva II
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Rodina Moskva II
29′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Rodina Moskva II · On: P. Baranov · Off: A. A. Khorin
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Dinamo Bryansk 1–1 Rodina Moskva II
40′A goal for Dinamo Bryansk on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–39–32
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Rodina Moskva II win: 36% at kick-off, 32% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Rodina Moskva II win 32%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Rodina Moskva II win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Rodina Moskva II win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 21%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Rodina Moskva II win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Rodina Moskva II win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 21%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Rodina Moskva II win: 36% at kick-off, 32% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Rodina Moskva II win 32%)
42′A goal for Dinamo Bryansk on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–40–31
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Rodina Moskva II win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Rodina Moskva II win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 21%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Rodina Moskva II win: 36% at kick-off, 32% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Rodina Moskva II win 32%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Dinamo Bryansk · On: R. Golovachev · Off: S. Terekhov
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Rodina Moskva II
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Bryansk 1–1 Rodina Moskva II
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rodina Moskva II win 31%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' A. Beskibalniy · Rodina Moskva II
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Bryansk 1–1 Rodina Moskva II
50′⚽ GOAL · 2' Dinamo Bryansk 1–1 Rodina Moskva II · V. Samko
50′🟨 YELLOW · 12' A. Khezhev · Rodina Moskva II
50′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Rodina Moskva II
50′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Rodina Moskva II
50′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Rodina Moskva II · On: P. Baranov · Off: A. A. Khorin
50′⚽ GOAL · 36' Dinamo Bryansk 1–1 Rodina Moskva II · E. Teterlev
50′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Dinamo Bryansk · On: R. Golovachev · Off: S. Terekhov
50′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Rodina Moskva II
50′🟨 YELLOW · 47' A. Beskibalniy · Rodina Moskva II
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Bryansk · On: B. Tsybrov · Off: V. Kondrashov
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Dinamo Bryansk 1–2 Rodina Moskva II
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Dinamo Bryansk 1–3 Rodina Moskva II
60′⚽ GOAL · 56' Dinamo Bryansk 1–3 Rodina Moskva II
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rodina Moskva II · On: G. Knyazev · Off: D. Svintsov
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rodina Moskva II · On: V. Manukyan · Off: V. Samko
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rodina Moskva II · On: M. Omarov · Off: D. Tikhonov
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dinamo Bryansk
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Dinamo Bryansk 2–3 Rodina Moskva II
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Rodina Moskva II
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Bryansk 2–3 Rodina Moskva II
FTDinamo Bryansk 2–3 Rodina Moskva II · Rodina Moskva II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dinamo Bryansk win33%

Draw31%

Rodina Moskva II win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueDynamo Stadium

Line-ups

Dinamo Bryansk

Rodina Moskva II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dinamo Bryansk

Rodina Moskva II

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	12	+13	26
5	Dinamo Bryansk	12	−4	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Bryansk

Formation not confirmed

13 A. A. Ermakov

4 D. Osokin

6 N. Alekhin

21 I. Rapakov

32 S. Terekhov

8 E. Teterlev

9 I. Solovyov

12 A. Medvedev

15 A. Novikov

20 D. Pikatov

24 V. Kondrashov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Akmurzin

2 · R. Golovachev

3 · N. Mankov

22 · R. Surmiy

10 · V. Drogunov

17 · K. Volovich

25 · S. Topinka

30 · M. Khalilov

11 · D. Konoplev

29 · B. Tsybrov

Rodina Moskva II

Formation not confirmed

33 A. Stenyakin

2 I. Gorbachev

22 A. Beskibalniy

52 T. Danilov

69 A. Khezhev

19 D. Tikhonov

24 M. Maltsev

79 D. Svintsov

89 R. Maltsev

98 A. A. Khorin

70 V. Samko

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · R. Tarasov

44 · P. Baranov

78 · M. Omarov

81 · V. Manukyan

92 · G. Knyazev

Our number · rodina moskva ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

36% The market43%

Us36%

~~Market~~43%

We make Rodina Moskva II a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rodina moskva ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Bryansk win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Rodina Moskva II win	36%	43%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−8
Dinamo Bryansk or draw	64%	57%	+6
Dinamo Bryansk clean sheet	29%	–	–
Rodina Moskva II clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 11.0 9.5 7.0 2.9 1 8.8 14.4 7.9 3.3 2 6.1 7.4 4.6 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Bryansk down, Rodina Moskva II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 424 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Bryansk at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rodina Moskva II away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Dinamo Bryansk, 1.25 for Rodina Moskva II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ROD 3–1 DIN

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold

DINAMO BRYANSK

DDLWDL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

RODINA MOSKVA II

WLWWLW4–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	12	+13	26
2	Dinamo Kirov	13	+4	24
3	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	13	+5	18
4	Novosibirsk	12	+3	18
5	Dinamo Bryansk	12	−4	16
6	Mashuk-KMV	13	0	15
7	Dinamo Vladivostok	12	−1	14
8	Volgar Astrakhan	12	−1	12
9	FK Sokol Saratov	12	−9	9
10	Kaluga	13	−10	7