Alaniya Vladikavkaz v Mashuk-KMV prediction · Second League A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3–3 Mashuk-KMV ALANIYA VLADIKAVKAZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alaniya Vladikavkaz win~~35%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.659

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.812

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alaniya Vladikavkaz win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–34–32
1′KICK-OFF Alaniya Vladikavkaz v Mashuk-KMV
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Mashuk-KMV
9′Mashuk-KMV score on 9′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–66
9′We said Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–1 Mashuk-KMV
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: 35% at kick-off, 13% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Mashuk-KMV win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Alaniya Vladikavkaz win 13%)
14′Mashuk-KMV find the net on 14′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
14′We said Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–2 Mashuk-KMV
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: 35% at kick-off, 3% now
24′A goal for Mashuk-KMV on 24′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–97
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–3 Mashuk-KMV
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–2–98
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Mashuk-KMV
32′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: A. Revazov · Off: A. M. Zakirov
45′HALF-TIME Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–3 Mashuk-KMV
46′SECOND HALF Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–3 Mashuk-KMV
54′Alaniya Vladikavkaz score on 53′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
54′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–95
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–3 Mashuk-KMV
57′55′: Z. Ramonov on the scoresheet for Alaniya Vladikavkaz, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
64′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: A. Bagaev · Off: A. Kuskov
64′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: G. Karkuzaev · Off: R. Daurov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: M. Abdulkhamidov · Off: A. Kozyrev
72′Alaniya Vladikavkaz find the net on 72′. 2–3. 2–3 · 2–14–84
72′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–14–84
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–3 Mashuk-KMV
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Alaniya Vladikavkaz
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Alaniya Vladikavkaz
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: B. Gurtsiev · Off: Z. Ramonov
79′Alaniya Vladikavkaz pull one back on 70′ through M. Abdulkhamidov. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–10–89
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Mashuk-KMV · On: R. Guseynov · Off: A. Domotsev
79′🟨 YELLOW · 71' D. Kobesov · Alaniya Vladikavkaz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Mashuk-KMV · On: R. Gystarov · Off: A. Krachkovskiy
89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mashuk-KMV · On: D. Bogomolov · Off: A. Butenko
89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mashuk-KMV · On: E. Krakhmalev · Off: S. Torosyan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Mashuk-KMV · On: K. Pomeshkin · Off: G. Budunov
92′Alaniya Vladikavkaz are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–3 · 0–2–98
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Alaniya Vladikavkaz
99′A goal for Alaniya Vladikavkaz on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 1–98–1
99′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 1–98–1
99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3–3 Mashuk-KMV
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+9' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Mashuk-KMV win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3–3 Mashuk-KMV
FTAlaniya Vladikavkaz 3–3 Mashuk-KMV · Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Alaniya Vladikavkaz just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 35%, draw 34%, Mashuk-KMV 32%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Alaniya Vladikavkaz v Mashuk-KMVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alaniya Vladikavkaz win35%

Draw34%

Mashuk-KMV win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 14

VenueRespublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Line-ups

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Mashuk-KMV

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Mashuk-KMV

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	13	+5	18
7	Mashuk-KMV	13	0	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Byazrov

3 A. Kuskov

9 A. M. Zakirov

10 D. Kobesov

11 I. Matyushenko

17 R. Daurov

21 A. Kozyrev

23 V. Nafikov

30 D. Shavlokhov

55 Z. Ramonov

75 S. Ogoev

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · A. Gioev

5 · A. Bagaev

7 · B. Gurtsiev

19 · A. Butaev

31 · G. Natabashvili

35 · S. Kasaev

47 · A. Revazov

57 · D. Tepsikoev

76 · G. Karkuzaev

99 · M. Abdulkhamidov

Mashuk-KMV

Formation not confirmed

3 R. Khagur

4 R. Machilov

5 A. Krachkovskiy

7 S. Torosyan

8 E. Saygushev

9 G. Budunov

13 A. Butenko

23 A. Abazov

33 A. Domotsev

51 E. Plotnikov

95 C. Magomadov

Coach · –

Substitutes

10 · R. Gystarov

21 · D. Bogomolov

26 · S. Oganyan

44 · E. Krakhmalev

47 · R. Guseynov

86 · V. Shaykhutdinov

96 · K. Pomeshkin

Our number · alaniya vladikavkaz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

35% The market43%

Us35%

~~Market~~43%

We make Alaniya Vladikavkaz a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alaniya Vladikavkaz v Mashuk-KMV~~1.07 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~4 v 7

~~The market · Alaniya Vladikavkaz win~~43% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alaniya Vladikavkaz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alaniya Vladikavkaz win	35%	43%	−8
Draw	34%	27%	+7
Mashuk-KMV win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	34%	46%	−12
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	63%	70%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	16%	26%	−10
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw	68%	70%	−2
Alaniya Vladikavkaz clean sheet	37%	–	–
Mashuk-KMV clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.1%

0123450 14.7 10.8 6.4 2.2 1 11.5 15.1 6.7 2.3 2 7.1 7.1 3.6 3 2.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alaniya Vladikavkaz down, Mashuk-KMV across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 427 Second League A - Division A Gold matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League A - Division A Gold matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.9% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mashuk-KMV away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Alaniya Vladikavkaz, 1.01 for Mashuk-KMV. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MAS 0–0 ALA · ALA 0–1 MAS · MAS 2–1 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 6 Sept

ALANIYA VLADIKAVKAZ

DDLDWW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 4–4 · 2–0 · 1–0

MASHUK-KMV

WLDDDD3–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rodina Moskva II	13	+14	29
2	Dinamo Kirov	14	+5	27
3	Novosibirsk	13	+3	19
4	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	13	+5	18
5	Dinamo Vladivostok	14	+1	17
6	Dinamo Bryansk	13	−5	16
7	Mashuk-KMV	13	0	15
8	Volgar Astrakhan	13	−1	13
9	FK Sokol Saratov	13	−12	9
10	Kaluga	13	−10	7