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Alaniya Vladikavkaz v Kaluga

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2–1Full time
Kaluga

Second League A - Division A Gold · SAT 24 OCT · Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Kaluga ALANIYA VLADIKAVKAZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Alaniya Vladikavkaz win45%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.452
The market’s Brier score0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Alaniya Vladikavkaz win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Alaniya Vladikavkaz was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–31–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Alaniya Vladikavkaz v Kaluga
  4. 42′A goal for Kaluga on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
  5. 42′We said Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
  6. 42′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–63
  7. 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–1 Kaluga
  8. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
  9. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Kaluga win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Alaniya Vladikavkaz win 39%)
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–1 Kaluga
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Alaniya Vladikavkaz 0–1 Kaluga
  12. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Alaniya Vladikavkaz
  13. 50′Alaniya Vladikavkaz score on 50′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–45–21
  14. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–1 Kaluga
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
  16. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Kaluga win 66%)
  17. 51′We said Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–46–21
  18. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Alaniya Vladikavkaz
  19. 56′Alaniya Vladikavkaz find the net on 55′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–3
  20. 56′We published Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–3
  21. 56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–16–3
  22. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Kaluga
  23. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: 45% at kick-off, 80% now
  24. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 49%)
  25. 69′We published Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  26. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  27. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: A. Kozyrev · Off: D. Kobesov
  28. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Kaluga
  29. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kaluga · On: I. Sokolov · Off: D. Sherstobitov
  30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kaluga · On: N. Pervakov · Off: N. Y. Kuzin
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: A. M. Zakirov · Off: Z. Ramonov
  32. 78′We published Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: A. Revazov · Off: R. Daurov
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alaniya Vladikavkaz · On: B. Gurtsiev · Off: I. Matyushenko
  35. 85′We published Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  36. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  37. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Kaluga
  38. FTFULL TIME Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Kaluga
  39. FTAlaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Kaluga · Alaniya Vladikavkaz win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alaniya Vladikavkaz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 45%, draw 30%, Kaluga 24%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Alaniya Vladikavkaz v KalugaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Alaniya Vladikavkaz win45%
Draw30%
Kaluga win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundFall season Gold · matchday 15

VenueRespublikanskij Stadion Spartak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Kaluga

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League A - Division A Gold

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Alaniya Vladikavkaz14+519
9Kaluga14−710

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alaniya vladikavkaz winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
45% The market68%
Us45%
Market68%

We make Alaniya Vladikavkaz a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 23 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Alaniya Vladikavkaz v Kaluga1.43 – 0.99
Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 19 v 104 v 9
The market · Alaniya Vladikavkaz win68% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:27
Our probability · Alaniya Vladikavkaz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Alaniya Vladikavkaz win45%68%−23
Draw30%22%+8
Kaluga win24%10%+14
Over 2.5 goals43%54%−11
Both teams to score49%46%+3
Over 1.5 goals71%75%−4
Over 3.5 goals23%34%−11
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw76%90%−14
Alaniya Vladikavkaz clean sheet38%––
Kaluga clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%
0123450 11.1 7.0 4.4 1 10.9 14.3 6.1 2.0 2 9.1 8.8 4.3 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Alaniya Vladikavkaz down, Kaluga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsKAL 1–1 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League A - Division A Gold this season · since 12 Sept

ALANIYA VLADIKAVKAZ

DLDWWD0–0 · 0–2 · 4–4 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–3

KALUGA

DLLLDW1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rodina Moskva II14+1430
2Dinamo Kirov14+527
3Novosibirsk14+320
4Alaniya Vladikavkaz14+519
5Dinamo Vladivostok14+117
6Mashuk-KMV14016
7Dinamo Bryansk14−816
8Volgar Astrakhan14−114
9Kaluga14−710
10FK Sokol Saratov14−1210

The competition's standings before kick-off.